8 minutes ago, tmagan said:

My understanding is that there is a new version of UKMET and it will come out later than previous versions did.

lol

of course

21 minutes ago, USAwx said:

Depending on the ultimate track of the system, it remains possible
enough warm air could intrude aloft to force a brief mix with sleet
and/or freezing rain Sunday night, especially for NYC and Long
Island. Have only mentioned a slight chance of this occurring, and
at any rate the damage will have been done well before then as far
as meeting 6+ inch snowfall amounts.

Total QPF for the event should be roughly between 1.0-1.5 inches.
Watch mentions a boilerplate 6-12 inches likely with localized
accumulations over 12 inches, but the above QPF with higher snow
ratios could yield widespread potential accumulations of over a
foot.

Best write-up I've seen in a while, especially being we're still around 72+ hours out. People are going haywire in the grocery stores here.

4 minutes ago, toad strangler said:

Canceled flight. Mixing FTL

That map is irresponsible

AI NOW MATCHES THE GEFS FOR THE SNOW BULLSEYE

5 minutes ago, Sundog said:

That map is irresponsible

If they're going off the 18zgfs it's pretty close has 13 inches on me by the way also the gfs had 19 weather drones in it sorry I dont know what they call it but that's what I was hearing

9 minutes ago, Sundog said:

That map is irresponsible

Instead of putting the dashed area and arrow with a message saying "mixing will reduce totals here", maybe just, you know, reduce totals on the map itself

3 minutes ago, USAwx said:

AI NOW MATCHES THE GEFS FOR THE SNOW BULLSEYE

PIT to NYC bullseye. You love to see it.

how are people not responding to the AI EURO

I don't get you people

confluence really locking in

1 minute ago, danstorm said:

Instead of putting the dashed area and arrow with a message saying "mixing will reduce totals here", maybe just, you know, reduce totals on the map itself

I mean it looks ridiculous. It says "mixing will reduce totals" yet points to the area of highest totals.

Unless they're expecting some massive QPF numbers there that nothing shows, I don't see how both can be true.

Just now, USAwx said:

That definitely looks colder.

EURO just made a HUGE leap to the gfs

NO JOKE

AIFS:

Just now, Sundog said:

AIFS:

check out euro

that was a big jump south at 18z

AIFS is slightly colder overall than 12z even though it advances the initial surge northward quicker. But it's plenty cold in the beginning anyway so it makes no diff for us.

The cold wraps back in quicker on the backend. The result is a beast for the tristate.

EURO!