Has bs dryslot, but its pretty cold

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GEFS

Ukie always with the stupid precip distribution

16 minutes ago, Sundog said:

These don't technically count sleet accumulations correct?

Because the snowfall amount stops dead once precip looks like it flipped to sleet.

Correct but Meteocentre has separate for ice pellets but takes forever to come out.

UKIE forcing collapses quickly.. here’s your problem.. goes to no flow at 850… kiss of death will be southerly 850 wind component.. look at the NAM.. it’s good for a bit and then 850 flow turns southerly.. our best storms… you will see 850 wind flow have more of an easterly trajectory

This hole over the city is just wrong. Otherwise uk would have been like the GFS

The GFS is currently the weather weenie dream because of this… sustained easterly low level jet

NAM for comparison.. looks great at first for 6 hours but then crashes as the LLJ shifts north and 850 flow becomes southerly

Just now, nycsnow said:

LOL. Ukie kicks me in the nuts with less than warning criteria totals and GEFS/GFS/AIFS jackpots or nearly jackpots me. NAMS, rapid refresh/Canadians/Germans are a bit more than Ukie but less than the American globals. EURO and its AI's and ensembles? We'll see.

Good luck making a forecast for my area! Blessings to all the meteorologists out there on this site and elsewhere who have to actually put out a forecast that impacts me and millions of other people!

NBM up to 1.6" L.E. for Central Park. Could end up being one of our most prolific precipitation producing storms in 14 months.

BTW.. check out the mega bomb the GFS produces later on in the run

9 minutes ago, Tornadojay said:

BTW.. check out the mega bomb the GFS produces later on in the run

Is that the storm next weekend ?