5 minutes ago, TheBomber656 said:

Lol surprise, surprise regarding where the yellow bracket is placed. What else is new.

At least they had the decency to point out the uncertainty for a change in a clear and graphic manner.

Ggem has roughly 1-2” of sleet after 6-15” snow

Gfs almost no sleet NYC.

If Euro is even 90% near GFS then I feel like other models will fall in line in next 24hrs..

NAM crushes central NJ with 3-4” of sleet after 5-7” snow

Euro AIFS 10:1.

1 minute ago, Graupel said:

You have the 10:1 maps? @Graupel

Just now, dbc said:

You have the 10:1 maps? @Graupel

Could be more, some of these frames showing sleet are definitely snow per soundings.

54 minutes ago, Graupel said:

NAM crushes central NJ with 3-4” of sleet after 5-7” snow

Pretty epic TBH.

14 minutes ago, Snowlover76 said:

Pretty epic TBH.

Just got a bulletin as of 105 am now calling for 12 to 18 inches up here

3 hours ago, Analog1888 said:

It really doesnt make sense. A huge high to the north and a weak ***** low only over the wv panhandle with the kind of antecedent air mass we have in place? I've seen weaker highs with stronger lows going into Youngstown and less non-snow than this. It just doesn't make sense. Maybe I am not even looking at things correctly, but it really doesnt make sense to blast that much warm air, especially at the surface. Nearshore ssts are cold, too

Over two decades ago, DT said something I never forgot. He said, in the 1960's there was a storm, where the day before 850 mb temperatures (in NYC) were (-20C), and the next day it ended up raining in NYC. Since this is before the NARR era, it is hard to look up, especially not knowing the exact year. While it is hard to displace that Arctic air, the warm air has ease going up and over that dome.

2 minutes ago, tmagan said:

Over two decades ago, DT said something I never forgot. He said, in the 1960's there was a storm, where the day before 850 mb temperatures (in NYC) were (-20C), and the next day it ended up raining in NYC. Since this is before the NARR era, it is hard to look up, especially not knowing the exact year. While it is hard to displace that Arctic air, the warm air has ease going up and over that dome.

I get that, but I meant with the placement of the features. I know that it could be -10 and you stick a 992 in Binghamton and it's going to rain, but this doesn't look like that kind of situation.

2 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

I get that, but I meant with the placement of the features. I know that it could be -10 and you stick a 992 in Binghamton and it's going to rain, but this doesn't look like that kind of situation.

To me it is because of a 'sloppy' transition, that allows warm air to sneak up the coast, which wouldn't happened if the secondary 'bombed' out instantly.

By the way, looked at the forecast ECMWF soundings for KNYC, with the exception of 3Z Monday, the amount of above freezing air is minimal and could be overcome, after that, the snow growth becomes inefficient, and the crystallization process becomes more difficult, so you may have freezing rain with supercooled droplets even with the entire column below freezing.

Nam switches coast to plain rain… maps prob nonsense

Need this trend to stop. NAM nailed the warm layer 12/26/25

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