1 minute ago, Castellanus said:

Improvement on 6z Icon

Yup just going to post this, big gfs and euro runs coming up, nam is concerning

29 minutes ago, VIRGAMAN said:

Yup just going to post this, big gfs and euro runs coming up, nam is concerning

I don’t buy it just simply cause of the plain rain?? Not even freezing rain lol

Icon a lot better and colder

Just now, nycsnow said:

great run on the gfs

Gfs is rock solid!!!

Just now, VIRGAMAN said:

great run on the gfs

RGEM improved

RGEM better, makes me feel better about Nam GFS held icon and rgem colder

Rgem 6z

Vs 0z

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

RGEM better, makes me feel better about Nam GFS held icon and rgem colder

Rgem 6z

ag

Vs 0z

agree, Euro will probably follow the colder solutions, I remember hearing the Nam is a warmer biased model, hopefully the 12z is a colder solution

RRFS much improved to vs 0z

The latest GRAF looks fairly GFS like

Regular gfs 1.5 qpf

AI 1.1

1 minute ago, SnowMiser123 said:

The latest GRAF looks fairly GFS like

i think we all see snow rates 1 to 2 inches per hour regardless of any sleet

tide.

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

The overall synoptic picture into early next week continues to
sharpen. At the surface, arctic high pressure slides east from
the Great Lakes into the Northeast this weekend. Meanwhile, low
pressure develops and tracks through the South before
redeveloping off Cape Hatteras, passing near or just inside the
40N/70W benchmark into Monday.

Aiding the potential for snowfall, an arctic air mass settles
in ahead of the storm. 925 mb temps look to fall toward -20C or
below on Saturday, with surface temperatures progged in the
teens during the afternoon, setting up one of the coldest days
in several years. This will allow snow to fall everywhere at the
onset, which looks to develop rather quickly either very late
Saturday night, or more likely Sunday morning around or after
daybreak. Periods of heavy snow then appear likely late Sunday
morning through the afternoon via the strong frontogenetic and
thermal forcing aided by an anticyclonic upper jet to the north.
Snowfall rates in this period likely eclipse 1 in/hr at times,
perhaps closer to 2 in/hr. Given the cold air mass in place
initially, SLRs start out on the higher side (15-18:1) at onset,
gradually falling back toward 10:1 or lower along the coast by
late afternoon as the mid levels warm. With guidance having
adjusted to a closer to the coast surface low, the proximity
introduces the possibility of enough warm air intrusion around
800 mb for the snow to mix with or change to sleet Sunday
evening. Best chances for this are along the coast, including
Long Island and NYC metro. Lower confidence in this occurring
going north, with all snow still the most likely solution into
the Lower Hudson Valley and Southern Connecticut. Freezing rain
or drizzle also cannot be ruled out, though significant icing
appears unlikely.

As the coastal system deepens and lifts north and east into Monday,
the boundary cools once again, and any wintry mix likely tapers
as snow showers or flurries into late Monday morning or afternoon.
Any additional accumulation is likely light.

Forecast snowfall totals have decreased slightly along the
coast. This is due to the increased potential for mixing as the
warmer air aloft works in. It should be emphasized though the
heaviest and steadiest precipitation is expected Sunday morning
into early evening, with the bulk of snow accumulation
occurring prior to any potential changeover. With QPF progged
over an inch, areas that remain all snow should be able to yield
double digit snowfall. The question becomes how much warm air
is able to work in and force a changeover to sleet, cutting down
snow totals. All said, still expecting a widespread 8 to 14
inches across the region, with localized amounts perhaps
approaching a foot and a half where best banding sets up and
ptype remains all snow. Greatest likelihood for this is across
the interior.

We remain just over 48 hours from event onset, so opted for no
headline changes with this update. It appears likely warnings will
be warranted for all areas later today or tonight, dependent on
no significant deviations in forecast thought.

Continue to monitor the forecast on what is increasingly likely
to be a major winter storm with significant disruption to travel
and daily life early next week.

&&