Just saw the Euro - it wasn’t as bad as described, mix line barely gets to I-80

Other models did cool somewhat, I feel better than when I went to bed

Maybe the NAM is correct when it shows warmth at the last minute vs 60 hours out (that’s what I’ll keep telling myself)

Just now, USAwx said:

Srefs!!!

How do you make a gif to compare the previous run to the current run at a certain time stamp? I don't see an easy way

4 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

What was the final outcome of the 6z gfs?

Monstrous! 15-20 for most Kooch

5 minutes ago, Sundog said:

How do you make a gif to compare the previous run to the current run at a certain time stamp? I don't see an easy way

12 minutes ago, danstorm said:

Just saw the Euro - it wasn’t as bad as described, mix line barely gets to I-80

Other models did cool somewhat, I feel better than when I went to bed

Maybe the NAM is correct when it shows warmth at the last minute vs 60 hours out (that’s what I’ll keep telling myself)

Euro and nam have done this before with being over amplified.

The fact ggem came in so snowy is telling as it was the warmest

They move to one another which is why NBM is a good move.

11 minutes ago, USAwx said:

I don't know what I am doing wrong, it always says exporting 1 frame. oh well

thanks for posting it

4 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I don't know what I am doing wrong, it always says exporting 1 frame. oh well

thanks for posting it

Maybe it doesn't like smelly Greeks. That would be my guess.

Aifs ensembles

One thing to keep in mind.. this antecedent airmass isn’t just cold….. it’s rock solid cold from top to bottom.. it’s not just low level cold air damming at the surface… it’s cold all the way through.. I’m hopeful we can hang on and not cut much west with an 850/700 center…

Keep an eye on 850 wind trajectory maps.. I was saying yesterday.. we want to keep as much easterly component as possible with as much east/west temp gradient as possible but wind trajectory is key.. all the classics have a ripping low level jet generally from an easterly direction.. the minute 850s go calm and switch southerly, I think it’s bad news

SILVER about to hit $100

Just now, toad strangler said:

SILVER about to hit $100

Dan i have 1 silver dollar. Should I sell it?

2 minutes ago, Tornadojay said:

One thing to keep in mind.. this antecedent airmass isn’t just cold….. it’s rock solid cold from top to bottom.. it’s not just low level cold air damming at the surface… it’s cold all the way through.. I’m hopeful we can hang on and not cut much west with an 850/700 center…

Keep an eye on 850 wind trajectory maps.. I was saying yesterday.. we want to keep as much easterly component as possible with as much east/west temp gradient as possible but wind trajectory is key.. all the classics have a ripping low level jet generally from an easterly direction.. the minute 850s go calm and switch southerly, I think it’s bad news

Yea see feb 94. Same thing. The storm ran into a huge brick. Very similar setup.

A good thing to do is try to go back and find maps from storms that seem as similar as possible and see what actually was happening.. as you start analyzing things, you’ll begin to pick up on general patterns that happen for big events and be able to see good set up characteristics… never any guarantees though gents.. Storm can always bust and even your best analysis and hunches can go down the tubes… it’s really tough forecasting

15 minutes ago, Tornadojay said:

One thing to keep in mind.. this antecedent airmass isn’t just cold….. it’s rock solid cold from top to bottom.. it’s not just low level cold air damming at the surface… it’s cold all the way through.. I’m hopeful we can hang on and not cut much west with an 850/700 center…

Keep an eye on 850 wind trajectory maps.. I was saying yesterday.. we want to keep as much easterly component as possible with as much east/west temp gradient as possible but wind trajectory is key.. all the classics have a ripping low level jet generally from an easterly direction.. the minute 850s go calm and switch southerly, I think it’s bad news

I am in that air mass. It's -10 here!

The gap between the SREFs and NAM is brutal

20 minutes ago, Tornadojay said:

A good thing to do is try to go back and find maps from storms that seem as similar as possible and see what actually was happening.. as you start analyzing things, you’ll begin to pick up on general patterns that happen for big events and be able to see good set up characteristics… never any guarantees though gents.. Storm can always bust and even your best analysis and hunches can go down the tubes… it’s really tough forecasting

Why is it that sometimes, a strong high in the correct position acts as a block, and other times, an even weaker low can plow right into it? When Is it a block, and when is it a cold air delivery system??