1 minute ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

So similar to Feb 83.

2 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

Classic rain setup

2 minutes ago, Sundog said:

ARWs still torchy

as usual. They move at the end. still 3 days away. crazy.

Looks like the NAM is going to give up a little more ground at 12z. Phasing looks a bit delayed compared to 6z which is leading to a slightly lower east coast height field run-over-run.

27 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

Why is it that sometimes, a strong high in the correct position acts as a block, and other times, an even weaker low can plow right into it? When Is it a block, and when is it a cold air delivery system??

I had this same question @CTWeatherFreak @Tornadojay and then was going one step further with it and wondering how the answer to that question would apply to the previous NAM and Canadian model runs for this upcoming storm that were bringing in the huge punches of sleet and even plain rain to some.

Love Jay's explanations of the wind direction at 850. Something additional to look for with these winter storms!

Yeah nam looks warmer from 6z

5 minutes ago, SnowMiser123 said:

Looks like the NAM is going to give up a little more ground at 12z. Phasing looks a bit delayed compared to 6z which is leading to a slightly lower east coast height field run-over-run.

agreed, strongly.

Just now, supermeh said:

Yeah nam looks warmer from 6z

no. opposite.

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

Sleet line further north already

Doesn't really matter to us. It's later on that matters, to see how long the primary holds on and how quickly the mid levels get torched.

You can have the intial slug be farther north AND the primary not developing as much and ruining things for the coast.

It's a faster evolution overall because it didn't phase as much over the Midwest earlier on

Just now, SnowMiser123 said:

It's a faster evolution overall because it didn't phase as much over the Midwest earlier on

faster is GOOD.

Just now, SnowMiser123 said:

It's a faster evolution overall because it didn't phase as much over the Midwest earlier on

I was just going to say it looks a bit faster. Maybe that’s why it looks warmer.

Just now, USAwx said:

faster is GOOD.

NAM brings the snow in pretty early… gonna be even colder in the wee hours of morning

It’s 3 hours faster. Better toggle at 9 hours than 6

Just now, nycsnow said:

NAM brings the snow in pretty early… gonna be even colder in the wee hours of morning

You mean 10 instead of 12 degrees?