1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

Earlier transfer?

Just now, USAwx said:

crushed

Tons better! By this hour mix line sagging south

This is going to produce 18" amounts over the metro

NAM!

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

Guys at 850mb the whole temperature structure is tilted to prevent as much torching

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

Sleet line stalled just south of metro

Ah there it is!

looks like GFS and ENSEMBLES!!!

@Rdd9108 @PaulTarsus we got NAM'd

Could the GFS POSSIBLY lead the way two storms in a row?
WTF is going on here?

Just now, Analog1888 said:

Could the GFS POSSIBLY lead the way two storms in a row?
WTF is going on here?

it's too cold, we know that

but models moving towards it as it moves slightly towards them

USE THE ENSEMBLES AND BLEND. THAT'S ALL YOU NEED RIGHT NOW.

I sniff taint but don't mix as of yet here. Earlier runs I was dead center in the purple

Still stalled

You can go to rockaway beach and canoe out 10 feet and get hit with sleet damn close

That gave up even more ground than I was expecting. Interested to see what direction the GFS goes after that shift.

NYC stays in the teens on the Nam on Sunday. Mix line stays below NYC.

Over a foot of snow

look at the pull east!!!!

16 minutes ago, dbc said:

I had this same question @CTWeatherFreak @Tornadojay and then was going one step further with it and wondering how the answer to that question would apply to the previous NAM and Canadian model runs for this upcoming storm that were bringing in the huge punches of sleet and even plain rain to some.

Love Jay's explanations of the wind direction at 850. Something additional to look for with these winter storms!

I’d say it’s balancing act with many factors involved… certainly, strength of a mid latitude system and positioning is always going to be critical. If you’re gonna crank up a huge southerly LLJ, it’s trouble for sure… and strength of high pressure and positioning to the north, depth of cold air…. Remember though that keeping these frotogenic forcing mechanisms in place and cranking like a machine is critical to maintain the cooling of the column… what I always say to people is take a look at an 850 map and look at how perpindicular isotachs are with isotherms along with strength of the flow.. what you’ll find that the stronger and more perpindicular that is and if you see isotachs remaining cool and not rising you can be assured forcing is insanely strong. The minute the push overwhelms and mid level temps start rising, you know the warm push is winning the battle over forcing. I would like to see more transfer to the coast as possible like the GFS has been showing.. we can’t let a strong LLJ with a southerly component push to hard here..

This run simply jackpots the OKX forecast area