1 hour ago, Tornadojay said:

I’d say it’s balancing act with many factors involved… certainly, strength of a mid latitude system and positioning is always going to be critical. If you’re gonna crank up a huge southerly LLJ, it’s trouble for sure… and strength of high pressure and positioning to the north, depth of cold air…. Remember though that keeping these frotogenic forcing mechanisms in place and cranking like a machine is critical to maintain the cooling of the column… what I always say to people is take a look at an 850 map and look at how perpindicular isotachs are with isotherms along with strength of the flow.. what you’ll find that the stronger and more perpindicular that is and if you see isotachs remaining cool and not rising you can be assured forcing is insanely strong. The minute the push overwhelms and mid level temps start rising, you know the warm push is winning the battle over forcing. I would like to see more transfer to the coast as possible like the GFS has been showing.. we can’t let a strong LLJ with a southerly component push to hard here..

Thank you for this. Incredible knowledge to have! This is why we come here to track. We learn at the same time as we track what hopefully is feet of snow for some!

Mix line barley gets to RT 78

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

A bump north on the GFS.

I was hoping it would hold to counterbalance the warmer models

It's OK. It's like they're coming into a consensus. Heavy snow, a BRIEF mix with sleet for an hour or two, then back to snow.

Not really that much not to like.

Final.

Theres backend at 72

Just now, Analog1888 said:

It's OK. It's like they're coming into a consensus. Heavy snow, a BRIEF mix with sleet for an hour or two, then back to snow.

Not really that much not to like.

My goal for my area is 10 inches. If I get that I will consider it a success.

3 minutes ago, Sundog said:

A bump north on the GFS.

I was hoping it would hold to counterbalance the warmer models

YOU GOTTA STOP MAN, THEY ARE MOVING TO ONE ANOTHER

I JUST TOLD YOU THE GFS HAD A BUMP NORTH LEFT IN IT

PLEASE DONT BITCH ABOUT 6-12 INCHES OF SNOW

Just now, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

Final.

Theres backend at 72

Beautiful! If it verifies I will not tease the goofus for the remainder of this winter.

Anyone have the 10:1?

GFS SNOWS THROUGH 1AM TUESDAY

Can this just happen please lol

AI GFS

Gfs isn’t awful at all. And literally few mile bump with 2 days to go would be huge

16 lol

1 minute ago, USAwx said:

GFS SNOWS THROUGH 1AM TUESDAY

Snows hr 72 on the backside

2 minutes ago, USAwx said:

YOU GOTTA STOP MAN, THEY ARE MOVING TO ONE ANOTHER

I JUST TOLD YOU THE GFS HAD A BUMP NORTH LEFT IN IT

PLEASE DONT ***** ABOUT 6-12 INCHES OF SNOW

I am just reporting what the model did.

Just now, Sundog said:

I am just reporting what the model did.

There was a tone....

2 minutes ago, USAwx said:

YOU GOTTA STOP MAN, THEY ARE MOVING TO ONE ANOTHER

I JUST TOLD YOU THE GFS HAD A BUMP NORTH LEFT IN IT

PLEASE DONT ***** ABOUT 6-12 INCHES OF SNOW

True and better than watching Wash and Carolina’s cash in while we are sucking cirrus

Do you think models are underestimating the intensity and it can be more of a back and forth battle of snow vs sleet? @USAwx @SnowMiser123