2 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Nice little bump south on the AI EPS at the height of the mid level warm push compared to 6z.

Anyone have a snowmap for that?

Liquid equiv…

More maps

NAM should be out now

let's go

4 minutes ago, Tornadojay said:

Liquid equiv…

20:1 ratios?

That primary needs to f*** off sooner. Im sweating over here. What model usually does best in these set ups?

NAM wraparound goes forever

Euro EPS look a touch colder than 6z, can someone post the snowmap? It's locked on Pivotal behind a paywall

1 minute ago, Rdd9108 said:

That primary needs to f*** off sooner. Im sweating over here. What model usually does best in these set ups?

Trends overall today were for a slightly weaker primary which is good. We don't want it too weak for our area though or we will lose the precip max in SW PA showing up on some models.

2 minutes ago, SnowMiser123 said:

Trends overall today were for a slightly weaker primary which is good. We don't want it too weak for our area though or we will lose the precip max in SW PA showing up on some models.

Sounds like a tight rope. Expect nothing different for our area. Excited for whatever falls regardless

2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 10
  and 14 inches. A changeover to a wintry mix is possible Sunday
  evening and could lead to additional sleet accumulation and a
  glaze of ice before a change back over to light snow later Sunday
  night. Isolated wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph are possible for
  eastern long Island.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 10
  and 14 inches. A changeover to a wintry mix is possible Sunday
  evening and could lead to additional sleet accumulation and a
  glaze of ice before a change back over to light snow later Sunday
  night. Isolated wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph are possible for
  eastern long Island.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

I would have went with 8 to 12. It encompasses almost all model output.

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

I would have went with 8 to 12. It encompasses almost all model output.

I told my family days ago 8-14 but also wouldn’t be surprised if it went 12-18

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

I would have went with 8 to 12. It encompasses almost all model output.

Me too - I would have gone 10-15" north of 287

I'm expecting 10" here but wouldn't be surprised if we get 15". We get there if we get a crazy band or two early, sleet holds off, and there is meaningful backside on Monday

11 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Euro EPS look a touch colder than 6z, can someone post the snowmap? It's locked on Pivotal behind a paywall

EPS

12z

6z

2 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I would have went with 8 to 12. It encompasses almost all model output.

Yeah, not sure what the benefit of being so aggressive is, especially for southern areas of the warning.

Trends today overall look good, just need to make sure we don't lose the uniform precipitation shield.

Overall, I'm expecting about 6-9 inches of snow and sleet here in Staten Island.

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Kind of cool for anyone who like big sleet accumulation. NAM has over 1” LE of sleet falling over Colts Neck after 6” of snow. That’s the equivalent of roughly 4” of sleet on top of 6” snow - pretty historic intact if true

The MOAB model finally came to its senses

What this tells me is that our snow maps could be counting heavy snow as sleet. Since they use any 33 degree warm layer aloft as rain.