2 minutes ago, NJTom said:

question about model output....Is it possible they are miscalculating the ocean temps off midatlantic, the southeast wind usual kiss of death for coast however the ocean temps are running 5 degrees colder than normal, still kiss of death for immediate coast but could that limit the northern extent just like how they are catching on the primary can't move as far north as it was showing yesterday.

Possibly but the cold ocean temps may also be contributing to why the transfer is sloppy and the coastal is a weak pissant that cannot destroy the primary enough to save a switch over to sleet. Not ideal "bombogenesis" perhaps. Also agree with @USAwx, there is potentially some underestimation of the denseness of the cold but my preceding comment to my agreement with Joshua also covers the mid-level jet killing anything comment Joshua also gave.

Stay tuned!

HRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR

the storm is going into a very strong block...same thing happened in Feb 2021 but this time its a lot colder...

13 minutes ago, USAwx said:

if anything, they are underestimating the dense cold air from the north

but a strong mid level jet will kill anything

thank you for answering

If anything, confluence is pressing a tad more on the height field on the NAM so far compared to 12z

11 minutes ago, dbc said:

Possibly but the cold ocean temps may also be contributing to why the transfer is sloppy and the coastal is a weak pissant that cannot destroy the primary enough to save a switch over to sleet. Not ideal "bombogenesis" perhaps. Also agree with @USAwx, there is potentially some underestimation of the denseness of the cold but my preceding comment to my agreement with Joshua also covers the mid-level jet killing anything comment Joshua also gave.

Stay tuned!

thank you as well for the additional info

Just now, SnowMiser123 said:

If anything, confluence is pressing a tad more on the height field on the NAM so far compared to 12z

NAM def looks colder and south in the Midwest

2 minutes ago, SnowMiser123 said:

If anything, confluence is pressing a tad more on the height field on the NAM so far compared to 12z

strongly agree

f

wood

Mix line on radar so you know when looking at returns what is sleet and snow

shit looks good - better coastal reflection sooner and looks a smidge south