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Tracking Historic DC and Jersey Blizzard

USAwx
USAwx
in Northeast Weather Discussion

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maybe we will get a mix later in the storm and then it goes back to snow...still going to be a significant winter storm...

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    Just now, Tornadojay said:

    Nice!

    IMG_3162.gif

    Question, why would 10:1 be higher than kuch?

    image.png

    Just now, nycsnow said:

    Question, why would 10:1 be higher than kuch?

    image.png

    No idea.. I don’t post kuch anymore and do 10:1… kuch seems kinda inflated a lot…… most of the time I should say

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    • Author

    been saying 9-12 area wide for 3 days

    no changes

    6-8 for NYC Long Island might be a good call…. Localized 12 inch amount

    Just now, Tornadojay said:

    No idea.. I don’t post kuch anymore and do 10:1… kuch seems kinda inflated a lot

    Is it perhaps because sleet is less than 10:1 qpf? Kuchera accounts for ratios up or down from 10:1, I thought?

    On a brighter note if the NAM is right and NYC gets like 4 inches it would be a spectacular failure for the hype machine and I'd love to see all the grifters and clickbaiters feel stupid

    • Like 1
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    1 minute ago, USAwx said:

    been saying 9-12 area wide for 3 days

    no changes

    Been saying 8 to 12 for 3 days

    Honestly.. we really not gonna know for sure till the storm is ongoing whether we hit the high ceiling.. it’ll be that close.. but hey.. most of us are still getting a ton of snow

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    • Thanks 1
    • Author

    18z RGEM IS BETTER FOR SOUTHERN AREAS

    ALEEEET

    ALEEET

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    • Haha 2

    Going with 4-8" down here. Expect several hours of sleet.

    Just now, USAwx said:

    10 to 1

    image.png

    starts with temps in the low teens...beginning of the storm could have 15 or 20-1 ratios....

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    • Author
    2 minutes ago, Sundog said:

    Been saying 8 to 12 for 3 days

    wow just wow

    Surface temps are a-La Jan 96.. at least initially for many.. very cold storm.. Jan 96 had the most insane cold in place

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    3 hours ago, Graupel said:

    Holly still going all in.

    image.png

    Seems like they're putting a lot of faith into the GFS.

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    https://www.usa-wx.com/forum/topic/8408-tracking-historic-dc-and-jersey-blizzard/
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