1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

6-8 for NYC Long Island might be a good call…. Localized 12 inch amount

Yup that's where I am at as well. I was hoping to settle in at 8-12 as a lock but can't ignore some of the lower end totals in some of the model runs. Ignoring those outliers is how you get yourself in trouble lol. Like I said last night during 0z, blessings to all the forecasters that have to make impactful predictions for me and millions of others in this region. It's always tough. Still some model tracking left to do, so might as well buckle up the rest of the way and enjoy the chase! It'll be what it'll be!

3 minutes ago, nesussxwx said:

Going with 4-8" down here. Expect several hours of sleet.

Your in southern nj now?

For me im at 7-11" with a crusty top

The fact that the 18z RGEM actually got a bit colder compared to 12z gives me some hope that the NAM is on crack

Huge gfs coming, need to hold or somehow be better lol

7 minutes ago, dbc said:

Is it perhaps because sleet is less than 10:1 qpf? Kuchera accounts for ratios up or down from 10:1, I thought?

Pivotal doesn’t even count sleet. Winter maps cut off once sleet or ZR enters in.

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

The fact that the 18z RGEM actually got a bit colder compared to 12z gives me some hope that the NAM is on crack

american model laziness

4 minutes ago, FrankPizz said:

Your in southern nj now?

For me im at 7-11" with a crusty top

Not a bad call

5 minutes ago, nesussxwx said:

Seems like they're putting a lot of faith into the GFS.

4 minutes ago, FrankPizz said:

Your in southern nj now?

For me im at 7-11" with a crusty top

Doing the same in western Monmouth

Biggest GFS run in 200 years

snow doesn't melt as fast when it has an icy coating...

if the models don't tick back colder by tomorrow then I'll believe we won't get 10" or more...

Just now, uncle w said:

if the models don't tick back colder by tomorrow then I'll believe we won't get 10" or more...

Hard to shovel though

44 minutes ago, goldalex said:

Ouch

Which location? This is a classic sleet signature.

Just now, nesussxwx said:

Which location? This is a classic sleet signature.

Long Island middle of the island

Just now, nesussxwx said:

Which location? This is a classic sleet signature.

Looks like Suffolk judging by the coordinates

9 minutes ago, FrankPizz said:

Your in southern nj now?

For me im at 7-11" with a crusty top

Yes. I still think Somerset/Middlessex/Monmouth will be the battle ground.

Whoever is south of that battleground line will see several hours of sleet, whoever is north of it will see minimal mixed precipitation.

2 minutes ago, Keith P.A said:

Hard to shovel though

I still have a metal shovel from 1961...at my age its just hard to shovel...8" of snow and sleet is heart attack territory...

Good analog Map for yesteryear I saw and want to share. Close to what we have overall.

Just now, amugs said:

Good analog Map for yesteryear I saw and want to share. Close to what we have overall.

i've been saying it for days as well

NO MORE BANTER. GFS RUNNING.