At 850… nothing is ripping but even the modest south and easterly vector components running across that tight thermal gradient is producing a lot of forcing

precip is way more expansive already on gfs

lol

yea, gfs is now meeting the baja low with the 3rd vort

What you’re seeing in the southeast is pure thermal gradient/overrunning forcing.. any upper level support and energy is way lagging back which is problematic to light the fire to get more consolidated of storm formation and generate 850/700 mb centers

lol

Just now, Tornadojay said:

What you’re seeing in the southeast is pure thermal gradient/overrunning forcing.. any upper level support and energy is way lagging back which is problematic to light the fire to get more consolidated of storm formation and generate 850/700 mb centers

yea but that is the gfs

and eventually that vort is going to eject and it's timed with the northern piece

that's why some models showing a second low formation on monday

i'm not interested in anything this model says, time and again it's been complete trash

It will be a cutter next run. Funny how one run was so messed up

AI GFS def looks better

anything gfs related is trash

need Euro AI and Euro to be as big or bigger than 12z

must stop the south trend

Just now, USAwx said:

AI GFS def looks better

anything gfs related is trash

need Euro AI and Euro to be as big or bigger than 12z

must stop the south trend

As trash as it is, glad the GFS did trend north thought for sure it was gonna be in Florida

Lots of time to sort out phasing details. Exact outcome probably won't be knowable for at least 3 more days.

Buckle up.

Obviously it’s going to be a lot colder but it seems like there is some similarities

51 minutes ago, amugs said:

I really don't know WTF they are looking at

I believe they are just being cautious because let’s be honest the forecast for the weekend snow was terrible. They are going to wait until we get closer to the event because they don’t want to commit either way this early on which is smart which is what people should be doing.

18z GGEM ^^^^

14 minutes ago, SnowMiser123 said:

Lots of time to sort out phasing details. Exact outcome probably won't be knowable for at least 3 more days.

wow just wow