I'm just going to go with the FV3 because I like looking at blue.

This Obv is wrong lol but shows you what could happen if things went right

2 minutes ago, Graupel said:

very odd indeed. It shows in total precip but not in snow or ZR and the soundings are solid until the next frame:

Yeah, I think you can carry that pink shade all the way across

Backend lol

15 minutes ago, USAwx said:

Sorry but this is not sleet, i don't care what the model says

Sorry about another question, what do the models show say if it's 95% snow and 5% sleet, just a few sleet pellets cause it to show as sleet however soundings say majority snow???

I think it's clear that there will be mixing at some point on the coast. Every model shows it. An all snow event is basically out of the question.

What we really need to see is a wall of snow coupled with heavy rates near the changeover hours so we can squeeze a few extra inches before the sleet.

I think this is the only way we get the city to 10 inches.

Are any of these hrw models remotely useful?

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

I think it's clear that there will be mixing at some point on the coast. Every model shows it. An all snow event is basically out of the question.

What we really need to see is a wall of snow coupled with heavy rates near the changeover hours so we can squeeze a few extra inches before the sleet.

I think this is the only way we get the city to 10 inches.

I think I’m gonna go 5-10 down here but leaning really 5-8” given the NAMs stubborn warmth and late Dec storm success.

4 minutes ago, Graupel said:

I think I’m gonna go 5-10 down here but leaning really 5-8” given the NAMs stubborn warmth and late Dec storm success.

Lol. The NAM is a joke

No one is even bothering to take it seriously

If it showed zero you wil still get 10.

Youre getting 10.

Just now, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

Lol. The NAM is a joke

No one is even bothering to take it seriously

If it showed zero you wil still get 10.

What are you thinking?

EVERY MODEL HAS ROUGHLY .6 TO .7 OF SNOW AT 12 TO 15 TO 1

• 10 AT 850

WE dont care about mixing

Our max 2ms are in the mid 20s with 2 inches of sleet w 40mph gusts

Its a major winter storm

lol

Icons actually a lot better but it’s laughable the jumping around

ICON is over 10 inches in NYC and area wide simply because it's heavier with the precip.

Technically it's a HAIR colder than 18z. I mean barely.

Another junk model!!’

Just now, Sundog said:

ICON is over 10 inches in NYC and area wide simply because it's heavier with the precip.

Technically it's a HAIR colder than 18z. I mean barely.

It’s believable though. There’s gonna be some ridiculous rates esp as the mix line pushes through right in front of it