4 minutes ago, VIRGAMAN said:

My area? Poughkeepsie?

30 to 40 easy. this is now an upstate NY storm, per paul.

10 looks right

I will make my first call tomorrow morning. You may see this trend north & west a couple more cycles and then correct s & e on the last run or two.

There is still a good deal of confluence that will limit how far n & w this thing can go.

I want to see a few more cycles before I make my first guess.

It snows until about 9PM Monday night on the GFS in NYC! Yeah snow growth may not be great, but even with bad snow growth, you may see 12:1 if it's snowing with temps in the teens!

There’s no way we’re going from 15-20:1 ratios to possible sleet in areas?! wtf

39 minutes ago, USAwx said:

30 to 40 easy. this is now an upstate NY storm, per paul.

lol I would be happy with a foot

euro is showing 11 inches i take that an run if there is no sleet mixing in, this is easily 12-18 inches storm i still believe that models will correct themselves somewhat still 3 days tracking.

Keep in mind with moisture coming in from the Gulf and SW Atlantic, both have areas with (well) above normal SSTs.

Just now, tmagan said:

Keep in mind with moisture coming in from the Gulf and SW Atlantic, both have areas with (well) above normal SSTs.

And this increases moisture and coastal front processes.

I would actually prefer having above normal SSTs rather than below normal nearshore, because that helps get more energy into the storm.

Even with below normal SSTs, if you get an E or SE wind, you'll change to rain anyway.
With a N or NE wind, most places won't get wind off the ocean, so SSTs don't matter in that regard.

If your SSTs are below normal, your overall storms will be weaker.

6z euro crushes PB to DC with the best front staying south of NYC, as i predicted weeks ago

1 minute ago, USAwx said:

Nothing north of the Driscoll bridge. Classic Ben Solo storm.

even at 108 a solid snow sounding for paul

pingers JUST becoming an issue for paul at 114

but storm is mostly over

stilll good snow growth