I thought the run was OK for 95 N&W.

Though, best snow growth would be pushed well into the HV/Berks/ Central New England.

3 minutes ago, jjvesnow said:

Not much in precip is left.. The main show is done by then verbatim.

Those lighter CCB bands can absolutely stack - I've learned not to underestimate them. The last few tenths in 1996 delivered 4-5"

Not saying that's the case here, just don't overlook it

Just now, CT Valley Dryslot said:

I thought the run was OK for 95 N&W.

Though, best snow growth would be pushed well into the HV/Berks/ Central New England.

Pretty ugly run for Long Island city jersey

Just now, nycsnow said:

Pretty ugly run for Long Island city jersey

One of many between now and Saturday.

Probably gonna see some crazy runs until then.

Will we have the winds so it’s classified a blizzard?

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

Pretty ugly run for Long Island city jersey

Certainly a possible scenario. We've seen it before. Have to hope the primary is weaker and gets no further north than extreme SW PA

Waiting for EURO

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Pretty ugly run for Long Island city jersey

How so?

Just now, Snowlover76 said:

How so?

Goes over to sleetfest fairly quick and then moves out

The UKMET still looks fairly amplified but tough to say how this run compares to its previous runs or to other 12z guidance.

3 minutes ago, danstorm said:

Those lighter CCB bands can absolutely stack - I've learned not to underestimate them. The last few tenths in 1996 delivered 4-5"

Not saying that's the case here, just don't overlook it

That's what can happen with really low temperatures and deep, existing snowpack.

A lot of people on this forum are too young to remember that and only compare this to other events (like Feb 2021) when it was 33-34 degrees when those bands moved through,

It's a completely different animal when the temperature is 15-20 degrees colder.

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Goes over to sleetfest fairly quick and then moves out

Ouch

GFS is such a waste of money.

Just now, Snowlover76 said:

GFS is such a waste of money.

it's caught on, but the fact that it takes days after the big boy models is laughable

3 minutes ago, SnowMiser123 said:

The UKMET still looks fairly amplified but tough to say how this run compares to its previous runs or to other 12z guidance.

I don't primary is nearly as strong

Unless I'm in Eastern Suffolk or the immediate shore of SNJ, I would not worry about mixing, unless it's like 10 minutes of sleet on and off for a couple hours.

This is not March 2017, where the storm has unlimited room to climb north.

There is a big high to the north and even a small PV lobe to the NW to stop this thing from getting too far north.

Add to that the fact that the models usually do a (small but important) correction SE at the last minute, and the fact that the GGEM model is probably the worst model in the world for thermals, I wouldn't even mention sleet in the forecast anywhere in the OKX zones except Eastern Suffolk.

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

it's caught on, but the fact that it takes days after the big boy models is laughable

It nailed the last storm, though. You can never totally discount it when it's consistent.

But we all know it struggles with southern stream systems and always has "that run" that's 1000 miles different.

man with four days to go the high totals can be moved way way up north😭

GFS has the same set up next weekend