The cold has been very impressive out here. Every day has been colder than forecast. The NBM guidance for days 5-7 has gotten 15-20 degrees colder. So why am I rambling about the cold out here?
That is the air mass that is feeding into this system. This is why I am saying there is zero worrry about mixing, except for those who mix even during great East Coast blizzards.

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Heard NBM is bonkers, anyone got the good updated map?

I posted the text output before and it is bonkers. It's like 16-20" regionwide.

3 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

I posted the text output before and it is bonkers. It's like 16-20" regionwide.

Stolen from twitter

7 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Heard NBM is bonkers, anyone got the good updated map?

Kaboom

NBM runs hourly.

Just now, jjvesnow said:

NBM runs hourly.

It runs hourly, but the text output is only every six hours, which I think is actually better.

I'm not really about using Kuchera maps for serious analysis at this point.

1 minute ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

I'm not really about using Kuchera maps for serious analysis at this point.

What are your thoughts on CMC? It’s kind of on its own atm

ECMWF is delayed at 12z

2 minutes ago, SnowMiser123 said:

ECMWF is delayed at 12z

Weenies crashed the server.

Just now, Analog1888 said:

Weenies crashed the server.

Gonna show something crazy now for sure 🤣

Just now, nycsnow said:

What are your thoughts on CMC? It’s kind of on its own atm

I think its reasonable to consider as part of the overall model spread.

It's certainly possible that the primary gets driven way north of Pittsburgh and causes the region to dryslot.

The clearest thing that I can see right now is for a possible Miller B affecting everyone from West TX to Eastern ME.

Unknown still is (1) how much the southern stream will phase in, (2) how long the PV lingers around, (3) the position of the storm occurring off Greenland.

We could get an area-wide SECS if the flow stays more progressive, an inland MECS with an amped solution, or something in between.

Heard CMC ENS aren’t like the op…. But pivotal or tidbits didn’t update them yet so

12z EURO AI is running

Regular Euro started as well

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Heard CMC ENS aren’t like the op…. But pivotal or tidbits didn’t update them yet so

They are no where near as amplified. Strong indicator the CMC will need to correct SE a bit.

Just now, SnowMiser123 said:

They are no where near as amplified. Strong indicator the CMC will need to correct SE a bit.

How's the member spread look?

Today was a good day for the euro to be delayed 😏figures

While we wait, here's the JMA: