EPS was fucking perfect

GFS would give us our first B word warning In I don’t even remember how long??? Euro as well

6 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

GFS would give us our first B word warning In I don’t even remember how long??? Euro as well

is a 1000mb low strong enough to generate the requisite winds?

Just now, CTWeatherFreak said:

is a 1000mb low strong enough to generate the requisite winds?

No, it wouldn't be windy enough

3 minutes ago, FrankPizz said:

No, it wouldn't be windy enough

Even 1996 didn't have the winds for the most part or Feb 2003

fuck the winds, this is a snow forum

move on

4 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

is a 1000mb low strong enough to generate the requisite winds?

I was looking at the pivotal wind maps which looked close but you guys know better than me

I don't see blizzard conditions occuring

Just now, USAwx said:

f*** the winds, this is a snow forum

move on

Wind mangles the dendrites anyway and causes uneven snowpack.

After recon how many model cycles does it take for the data to be reflected?

4 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

After recon how many model cycles does it take for the data to be reflected?

usually the next cycle?

Recon plan for today had drops in the N Pacific where our shortwave is headed.

They should be in starting with the 18z runs.

10 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

After recon how many model cycles does it take for the data to be reflected?

You want to ingest the data into the model at the closest time to when the observation was taken. It gets very complicated & in the weeds, but there are various ways to account for the time of the observation not lining up perfectly with model time.

If the data assimilation pre-processing algorithm has deemed an observation to be good, then you adjust the model background state (prior) to better match the observation, and you obtain a new, higher quality estimate for what the true state of the atmosphere is (posterior).

I think the gfs and AIFS are the best solutions right now. Quick transfer. Epic fronto banding then some coastal enhancement

1 minute ago, CooL said:

I think the gfs and AIFS are the best solutions right now. Quick transfer. Epic fronto banding then some coastal enhancement

euro was 50 miles from looking like the gfs

it was much better than the 6z

2 minutes ago, CooL said:

I think the gfs and AIFS are the best solutions right now. Quick transfer. Epic fronto banding then some coastal enhancement

Thats what the coast needs

Otherwise we get shadowed and sinking air

Can we close off ?

3 minutes ago, CooL said:

I think the gfs and AIFS are the best solutions right now. Quick transfer. Epic fronto banding then some coastal enhancement

I agree. I can't see how the primary goes that far north in this setup.
This setup is very different from March 2017.