Someone smarter than me should look but I suspect some CF and other things at play on this GFS run

You don't want to be in the jackpot 72hrs outside this IMO. I'll take inside 24hr for that & the models are going to wobble around, as we are seeing.

Actually, I like where the GFS is. We need one of the models to be a little too far south and east. Why not let it be the GFS? This does nothing except increase my confidence that it will be cold enough for snow.

As long as there is no crazy changes for the worst over the next day or so I’m fine with a little nuances from each model from run to run until we get a little closer and hone in on the final solution.

GFSAI AIFS are carbon copies of each other

Just now, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

GFSAI AIFS are carbon copies of each other

You mean the AIGFS and AI Euro?

12 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

I’ll take this gfs solution over it showing mixing like cmc tbh

Ya but its the GFS

The gfs is doing nothing but just showing you a southern solution and the euro is, the more northern.Solution you take the in between to start your forecast it leaves everyone in a great spot for this storm really not bad 2 an half days of tracking to go.

4 minutes ago, goldalex said:

They’ve been crazy wow

24 minutes ago, USAwx said:

and people are upset about this?

Natch; Bastan jackpots

Gefs better than op again

18z gfs south

18z aifs and gefs go north lol

OP GFS is fine, it's within the spread.

Euro stayed the same, I like.

Not too concerned about the pre-event evolution at this point.

18z AI-GFS:

UKie at 66hr