Just now, USAwx said:

euro abandoned the idea of a primary

not it's just uber tucked into the coast

gonna consider this 18z nonsense.

I have been saying this for a long time. I don't know why exactly, but the 18Z Euro run in particular is always super amped.

I remember several coastal lows that went way OTS and that 18Z Euro run would come out and show a hit.

It much less phased than prior runs

2 minutes ago, USAwx said:

euro abandoned the idea of a primary

not it's just uber tucked into the coast

gonna consider this 18z nonsense.

An Arctic cold dome is sitting in SE Canada but it can't hold back a 1006mb low?

Aifs pretty similar from 12z

In our snowstorm analysis, is this the time frame we can expect the models to shxt the bed, only to come roaring back in a day?

2 minutes ago, Sundog said:

An Arctic cold dome is sitting in SE Canada but it can't hold back a 1006mb low?

Something very wrong with that run. It's a complete outlier to It's AI

Wasn’t there recon in the 18z?

Just now, jjvesnow said:

Wasn’t there recon in the 18z?

And what happened? The two main models moved further apart.

1 minute ago, jjvesnow said:

Wasn’t there recon in the 18z?

I believe so.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 211739
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1240 PM EST WED 21 JANUARY 2026
SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
         VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JANUARY 2026
         WSPOD NUMBER.....25-052 CORRECTION

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49
       A. 23/0000Z
       B. NOAA9 03WSA TRACK66
       C. 22/2015Z
       D. 10 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK BEGINNING WITH DROP POINT 3    
          AND ENDING WITH DROP POINT 2.
       E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 22/2030Z TO 23/0230Z.

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE MISSION ALONG TRACK 66 
       FOR 24/0000Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 75
       A. 23/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 12WSE IOP11
       C. 22/1830Z
       D. 25 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED 
          BY: 35.0N 130.0W, 35.0N 110.0W, 15.0N 110.0W, 
          AND 15.0N 130.0W
       E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 22/2030Z TO 23/0230Z

    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF WC-130J AIRCRAFT MAY FLY AN 
       ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSIONS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR THE 
       24/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.
    3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: TWO USAF WC-130J AIRCRAFT MAY FLY 
       ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSIONS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN 
       PACIFIC FOR THE 25/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.

$$
KAL/SEF

2 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

And what happened? The two main models moved further apart.

GFS and the EURO had much less phasing.

Euro would still be 10-15 area wide..

Just now, jjvesnow said:

That looks pretty good?

Sleets for last 2-4 hrs after dumping 10 -15

AIFS eps better still

Serious question, why do heights get so high near the coast with a weak low and less phasing and a massive high just to our north?

Just now, Sundog said:

Serious question, why do heights get so high near the coast with a weak low and less phasing and a massive high just to our north?

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

Serious question, why do heights get so high near the coast with a weak low and less phasing and a massive high just to our north?

Pumps the SE ridge up and presses us in.