Just now, SnowMiser123 said:

wouldn't kick that out of bed and I still think it will tick S and E

06Z ECMWF would imply significant freezing rain for the NYC metro.

Latest NBM run has 1.3" liquid equivalent for NYC.

9 minutes ago, tmagan said:

06Z ECMWF would imply significant freezing rain for the NYC metro.

Damn really?

10 minutes ago, tmagan said:

06Z ECMWF would imply significant freezing rain for the NYC metro.

NOT happening

it's too warm

Just now, jjvesnow said:

Damn really?

These are usually overdone, but given how significant the low-level cold air source is, I'm more inclined to believe these amounts verbatim:

Just now, SnowMiser123 said:

These are usually overdone, but given how significant the low-level cold air source is, I'm more inclined to believe these amounts:

don't buy the euro thermals

Just now, SnowMiser123 said:

These are usually overdone, but given how significant the low-level cold air source is, I'm more inclined to believe these amounts verbatim:

Might be a thump to snizzle scenario.

It's bizarre, but from an impact standpoint, 6-10" with a quarter inch of freezing rain may actually be more impactful than 12-18" of snow.

But remember what I said yesterday, the off-hour ECMWF runs are always warm and amped.

SO don't panic UNLESS the 12Z Euro shows that.

Just now, USAwx said:

don't buy the euro thermals

To be clear I'm not necessarily favoring the Euro right now - just that for areas that do get freezing rain, the amounts will likely be significant with how cold surface temperatures are. Ice will have no problem accreting to just about everything with surface temperatures well below freezing.

The layer of above freezing temps is very marginal and narrow… at least at this timeframe

Just now, SnowMiser123 said:

To be clear I'm not necessarily favoring the Euro right now - just that for areas that do get freezing rain, the amounts will likely be significant with how cold surface temperatures are. Ice will have no problem accreting to just about everything with surface temperatures well below freezing.

Also considering it would be on top of existing snowpack.

By the way.. wind profile on that sounding is an excellent example of a good WWA pattern taking place.. veering profile goes through a substantial portion of the lower level with a good veering pattern and a strong flow

Bread and milk today.

The overnight NBM actually got substanitally snowier for the NY metro.

Here’s a sounding from around my area in Rockland county during the height.. talk about a cold storm