RRFSA looks mint

Close up on the winds… this is what you want to look for in a good storm

The taint and freezing rain is starting to look like a real possibility imho. Just need to get to the mesos to know what’s real

1 minute ago, goldalex said:

The taint and freezing rain is starting to look like a real possibility imho. Just need to get to the mesos to know what’s real

Sleet maybe, freezing rain, I would sincerely doubt

1 hour ago, USAwx said:

i don't know what the ggem is doing with that sleep push into basically almost northern jersey

1040 high is ANCHORED to the north

These highs historically lock in as per Joe d’leo

4 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

Sleet maybe, freezing rain, I would sincerely doubt

1 minute ago, goldalex said:

I know what it shows, but I am telling you what I expect.

THIS IS still a 4 day storm

we will see continued changes

coastal fronts and meso lows are going to play a big deal here

Just now, USAwx said:

THIS IS still a 4 day storm

we will see continued changes

coastal fronts and meso lows are going to play a big deal here

I believe its closer to 72hrs away.

Just now, CT Valley Dryslot said:

I believe its closer to 72hrs away.

Yes, 72 hours from when it starts. The 00Z NAM tonight may have a good handle on where it sleets.

I hate that model but it has one good use.

Just now, CT Valley Dryslot said:

I believe its closer to 72hrs away.

Yes, 72 hours from when it starts. The 00Z NAM tonight may have a good handle on where it sleets.

I hate that model but it has one good use.

EPS have been showing between 9 and 10 inches snow depth for NYC for at least 6 runs now, including this morning's 6z.

FYI there's rain all the way up to Seaside Heights by 1PM Sunday on the 6z RGEM.

This storm is quickly changing into something we weren't seeing on previous runs

2 minutes ago, Sundog said:

FYI there's rain all the way up to Seaside Heights by 1PM Sunday on the 6z RGEM.

This storm is quickly changing into something we weren't seeing on previous runs

I'd wait until tonight to use those meso models. I can't see how that happens with the depth of the cold air mass we have and that high up north.

Right now, you're at the end of the RGEM run, so it may not be that accurate yet.

I'm inclined to think that the OP GFS is an outlier, especially considering its progressive bias.

GEFS members are heavily leaning N&W with the low track.

CMC/ICON take the low from Cape May to ACK.

Euro is the same except about 50 miles off ACK.

The sense from the guidance appears to be initial fronto-thump -> dryslot -> possible backend.

Most guidance save for the GFS is now letting the low bomb out in the Gulf of ME.

8 minutes ago, Sundog said:

FYI there's rain all the way up to Seaside Heights by 1PM Sunday on the 6z RGEM.

This storm is quickly changing into something we weren't seeing on previous runs

We are still at the range where mesoscale models may be more amplified than they should be with the overall synoptic pattern. If by the 12z Saturday runs they still look like this, then give that idea more credence, since they will tend to handle mid-level warming better compared to global models by then.

10 minutes ago, Sundog said:

FYI there's rain all the way up to Seaside Heights by 1PM Sunday on the 6z RGEM.

This storm is quickly changing into something we weren't seeing on previous runs

Rgem and ggem are showing severe connective feedback. Do not use.

1 minute ago, SnowMiser123 said:

We are still at the range where mesoscale models may be more amplified than they should be with the overall synoptic pattern. If by the 12z Saturday runs they still look like this, then give that idea more credence, since they will tend to handle mid-level warming better compared to global models by then.

I wouldn't use any Canadian product right now

NBM damn