Eps look more like gfs than Euro IMHO

5 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

NBM damn

This is what I was talking about and it's very interesting that the max is still on the Jersey Shore and not, in say, Scranton.

Obviously, if this is the NBM, it's a lot more than "just the GFS" showing this.

Hopefully we can see a tick s/e today with the mixing issues.

Ai ensembles. Boom! Matches ukie and gfs

The EURO exposes a weakness in the blocking, allowing a primary to travel further north. The GFS has a more classic banana look.

This is a strange storm.

Where is the 850 low? 700mb low?

It looks like a glorified SWFE on the maps like @THE GREAT Ben Solo said.

The only semblance of an 850mb low I can find is all the way back by the Ohio/Indiana border.

All winds are southerly for the entire mid levels in our region

1 minute ago, Frank_Wx said:

The EURO exposes a weakness in the blocking, allowing a primary to travel further north. The GFS has a more classic banana look.

I have trouble believing that high moves east at all. 5050 is locked in

I have to say, I am surprised by the consistency of the much-maligned UKMET. It has done much better than it usually does.

Just now, Sundog said:

This is a strange storm.

Where is the 850 low? 700mb low?

It looks like a glorified SWFE on the maps like @THE GREAT Ben Solo

The only semblance of an 850mb low I can find is all the way back by the Ohio/Indiana border.

All winds are southerly for the entire mid levels in our region

It's press jet induced.

Just now, Sundog said:

This is a strange storm.

Where is the 850 low? 700mb low?

It looks like a glorified SWFE on the maps like @THE GREAT Ben Solo said.

The only semblance of an 850mb low I can find is all the way back by the Ohio/Indiana border.

All winds are southerly for the entire mid levels in our region

That's why I compared it to Feb 1994, but I am not sure if it's closer to part I or part II.

Now if the "Monday part" somehow blows up, it would be Feb 1994 redux.

Models handled that very poorly...

I'm confident in my call and I know that 5050 epo and ao will prevail

Srefs

84 hour 6z NAM has a crazy cutoff between very low accumulations based on ice/sleet and lots of snow just a few miles north. Look at this 6 hour frame in NJ:

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

84 hour 6z NAM has a crazy cutoff between very low accumulations based on ice/sleet and lots of snow just a few miles north. Look at this 6 hour frame in NJ:

And I bet it kicks n and e from there.

What I like about the NAM is that it is colder at all levels compared to the 6z RGEM. Much colder in fact. Surface freezing is still way down by Cape May/Southern Delaware instead of the mid 30s by Seaside Heights like the 6z RGEM showed.

It also looks flatter so it looks like it may have headed more east as well.

3 minutes ago, Sundog said:

84 hour 6z NAM has a crazy cutoff between very low accumulations based on ice/sleet and lots of snow just a few miles north. Look at this 6 hour frame in NJ:

That's not even nearly done yet.

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

What I like about the NAM is that it is colder at all levels compared to the 6z RGEM. Much colder in fact. Surface freezing is still way down by Cape May/Southern Delaware instead of the mid 30s by Seaside Heights like the 6z RGEM.

It also looks flatter so it looks like it may have headed more east as well.

That is a very good sign, especially since the NAM usually leads the way w/regards to mid level warmth.

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

What I like about the NAM is that it is colder at all levels compared to the 6z RGEM. Much colder in fact. Surface freezing is still way down by Cape May/Southern Delaware instead of the mid 30s by Seaside Heights like the 6z RGEM.

It also looks flatter so it looks like it may have headed more east as well.

That is a very good sign, especially since the NAM usually leads the way w/regards to mid level warmth.

5 minutes ago, Sundog said:

What I like about the NAM is that it is colder at all levels compared to the 6z RGEM. Much colder in fact. Surface freezing is still way down by Cape May/Southern Delaware instead of the mid 30s by Seaside Heights like the 6z RGEM showed.

It also looks flatter so it looks like it may have headed more east as well.

Been saying this