NOTHING is more accurate than pivotal

Good to see it tick colder. Still in the extended range where it has a tendency of being too amped compared to what ends up taking place.

it would absolutely pull back S and E as coast takes over

The NAM being colder is a really good sign. When there is an event with a concern for mid level warming, the NAM is always warmer.

Just now, jjvesnow said:

.50-.75 at 84 and the sleet line starts to become a problem.

Yeah, makes it up to about my area at that timestamp, but who knows if it would have crashed back down in another frame if the coastal took over. I think so

You can see as you progress through the hours that right after hour 84 it probably would have tried to collapse the mid levels back south and bring the cold back in as the low pulls eastward. How much latitude the mid level warmth gains before this happens remains to be seen.

Just now, Sundog said:

You can see as you progress through the hours that right after hour 84 it probably would have tried to collapse the mid levels back south and bring the cold back in as the low pulls eastward. How much latitude the mid level warmth gains before this happens remains to be seen.

exactly. And NAM is always too aggressive with mid level push and being too amplified at this hour

i like this run

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

You can see as you progress through the hours that right after hour 84 it probably would have tried to collapse the mid levels back south and bring the cold back in as the low pulls eastward. How much latitude the mid level warmth gains before this happens remains to be seen.

the coastal is ABSOLUTELY pulling E N E at this hour

it would collapse

Nam not in wheelhouse yet but still not a bad look this early on. Could see U been NAMD runs coming up in next day or so.

3 minutes ago, USAwx said:

the coastal is ABSOLUTELY pulling E N E at this hour

it would collapse

I'm very excited for the backside of this storm - always surprises abound

1 hour ago, nycsnow said:

But that’s just for us being nerds… not doing it to cause a stir or for clicks on social media

59 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

True, very true

If you guys want I can start moving snow maps out of this thread again and keep them in our snow map thread. I and the other mods are being lenient right now considering this major threat to all of the region. If you want me to crack the whip on snow maps I will @goldalex @USAwx.

FYI 3K NAM at 60 hours is even more suppressed than the 12k NAM at 60 hours

Good view of the angle of the LP going off the coast

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

FYI 3K NAM at 60 hours is even more suppressed than the 12k NAM at 60 hours

SO if you get 6-10" of snow, it sleets for an hour and then flips back to heavy snow, is that so awfuL?

incredible dual jet

a nice quick re development off the Virginia capes would be nice...

1 minute ago, Graupel said:

Very nice even down here

That says it's the 6z run