2 minutes ago, Keith P.A said:

What major snowstorm doesnt have some sleet in them...On Long Island I got a period of sleet in Jan 1978,96, 2002 and Boxer Day..when not one model had some sleet..its part of the deal. And now we have 50 models to look at..some will show it.Its a matter of numbers.

aifs looked good.

So outside the cmc?? Double digit snowfall on every model

It's actually snowier for NYC compared to 6z because it thumps harder. At 10:1 it shows 9.4 inches at 12z

Can someone post the 12z Euro Kuchera vs the 6z?

I think people focusing to much on the sleet. Even if we don’t sleet what would we add maybe an inch or 2????

Euro Kooch (does not include sleet)

And as we get closer hopefully we see some models pick up on weenie bands/ exact location of sleet. Few miles make a world of difference

1 minute ago, Graupel said:

Euro Kooch (does not include sleet)

NYC is snowier but southern half of NJ reduced quite a bit compared to 6z

At this point we know theres going to be a mix line. Just need to see how far North it gets. Time to wait on the meso models.

Just now, goldalex said:

At this point we know theres going to be a mix line. Just need to see how far North it gets. Time to wait on the meso models.

I am just going to ride the GFS and pretend this is an all snow event

FWIW no one on this board is going to jackpot on the Kuchera maps.

2-3 feet of lake effect snow expected in the Oswego, NY, area tomorrow into Saturday.

Someone there will probably have 4 feet by Monday.

Trend continues though of models trending colder, even little improvements help with still 3 days to go

2 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

FWIW no one on this board is going to jackpot on the Kuchera maps.

2-3 feet of lake effect snow expected in the Oswego, NY, area tomorrow into Saturday.

Someone there will probably have 4 feet by Monday.

Fake snow doesn't count

Just now, Sundog said:

NYC is snowier but southern half of NJ reduced quite a bit compared to 6z

Yup need a tick or two SE to fix this here.

11 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

True, but the sleet line is almost always near the 543 line. It's hard to get snow above 544 and usually below 542, you're pretty good in these situations.

Yea.. like I said… they’re pretty good for general benchmarks and fine to use.. I typically never look at thicknesses with the exception of just general judgements on overall airmass temps.. if you use them.. better to supplement with thicknesses from different pressure regions to get the full picture

Hopefully, the euro is just too warm, and hopefully the gfs has a better grip on this how one could be so different than the other, but almost in the same ballpark. It's crazy one will cave to the other will see which one it is.

Just now, let_it_snow said:

Hopefully, the euro is just too warm, and hopefully the gfs has a better grip on this how one could be so different than the other, but almost in the same ballpark. It's crazy one will cave to the other will see which one it is.

Could just meet in the middle as well.

Just now, Brian5671 said:

Could just meet in the middle as well.

Yeah we’re still light years away from gametime with 50 mile nudges

1 minute ago, let_it_snow said:

Hopefully, the euro is just too warm, and hopefully the gfs has a better grip on this how one could be so different than the other, but almost in the same ballpark. It's crazy one will cave to the other will see which one it is.

They're really like within 50 miles of each other at 72 hours, which is pretty impressive. It's just that one puts our area slightly on the warmer side and the other puts us slightly on the colder side.

VIRGAMAN for example couldn't give a shit whether the GFS or EURO are correct. He cashes in either way.

2 minutes ago, Sundog said:

They're really like within 50 miles of each other at 72 hours, which is pretty impressive. It's just that one puts our area slightly on the warmer side and the other puts us slightly on the colder side.

VIRGAMAN for example couldn't give a shit whether the GFS or EURO are correct. He cashes in either way.

As do I quite frankly.