NO MORE BANTER. MAPS AND ANALYSIS ONLY. STOP FEEDING THE BEARS (VIRGAMAN)

8 minutes ago, VIRGAMAN said:

Makes up for all the times I sucked cirrus on sharp cuttoffs while you guys got buried lol

Oh the pain.. We've All gone through that. Sux

1 hour ago, PaulTarsus said:

I like this a lot, based on current guidance.

The average liquid equivalent for our area is 1"-1.1" - if you get ratios near 12/16/20, it's 13:1. But 12/16/20 is likely warmer, on average, than what we will be seeing with this event. NWS is playing 16:1 ratios here. So 1-1.1" LE plus 13-16:1 ratios easily puts you over a foot right now.

3 minutes ago, Sundog said:

15z SREFs coming in more suppressed so far

They're not out yet on NCEP's site.

19 minutes ago, BlizzardBill said:

Somerset county where I live always seems to be the battle line for mixing.. hence one model

Has 18” here another has 9” here we are gonna get a big storm now it comes down too how strong is the high and how long does the primary hang on ect.. that could be 6+ inch differences for some areas.

Yes, often times right around our area is the cutoffs. Sometimes we win out, other times no.

4 minutes ago, FrankPizz said:

Yes, often times right around our area is the cutoffs. Sometimes we win out, other times no.

Somerset is a very close call right now. Would not take much to correct to all snow for your area.

Ice will be a huge deal in VA/NC with this event. Could see grid infrastructure failure if these numbers come even close to verifying there.

4 minutes ago, Castellanus said:

I would be genuinely surprised if Tom's River saw a higher snow total than Morristown & Sussex.

1 minute ago, SnowMiser123 said:

I would be genuinely surprised if Tom's River saw a higher snow total than Morristown & Sussex.

Or Long Branch.

The 12z EURO did cool slightly. I think one aspect people might be overlooking with the EURO is how far inland the 700mb frontogenesis gets. The GFS keeps all of this good stuff offshore. We're dealing with more dynamics on the EURO, whereas on the GFS, it's a fairly equitable distribution of QPF with similar ratios area-wide. EURO has the potential to still achieve GFS level type of snow (likely still less) but in a shorter duration of time because of these types of rates.

Note this is through 7pm Sunday

9 minutes ago, Frank_Wx said:

The 12z EURO did cool slightly. I think one aspect people might be overlooking with the EURO is how far inland the 700mb frontogenesis gets. The GFS keeps all of this good stuff offshore. We're dealing with more dynamics on the EURO, whereas on the GFS, it's a fairly equitable distribution of QPF with similar ratios area-wide. EURO has the potential to still achieve GFS level type of snow (likely still less) but in a shorter duration of time because of these types of rates.

Being in better forcing is always good to help sustain dynamic cooling through the column.. if we get into a lull, a high likelihood of a period of snizzle and garbage time.

19 minutes ago, Castellanus said:

Wow Mt Holly believes no sleet for NJ .. nice .. funny how they have my area as the lowest

5 minutes ago, Tornadojay said:

Being in better forcing is always good to help sustain dynamic cooling through the column.. if we get into a lull, a high likelihood of a period of snizzle and garbage time.

Right, but even if you snowed in one of those lulls, how much would you really get?

CMC ensemble is a touch better than 0z so its operational on its own