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Tracking Historic DC and Jersey Blizzard

USAwx
USAwx
in Northeast Weather Discussion

Featured Replies

  • Author
1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

CMC ensemble is a touch better than 0z so its operational on its own

we knew that, as the rgem was colder at 12z

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    42 minutes ago, SnowMiser123 said:

    Somerset is a very close call right now. Would not take much to correct to all snow for your area.

    Yeah, always a really tough call for here. I moved from Piscataway10 years ago, and it was tough there too. I should have went more NW instead of due West, lol

    Mt Holly going more with blend/gfs for the Toms River area

    IMG_5930.jpeg

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    3 minutes ago, USAwx said:

    Pretty

    69727b073f8db.png

    Cold

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    Screenshot_22-1-2026_124755_lab.weathermodels_com.jpeg.9481bf43e42d3f60b012ef97c9b0d259.jpegScreenshot_22-1-2026_124810_lab.weathermodels_com.jpeg.3464c202b8b3ce920d2ddb9fe781969c.jpeg

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    A slide denoting Scenario #1, a heavier areawide snow with possible snowfall amounts noted.

    Upton is aggressive

    image.jpeg.042ad1cdd2874922a974c66a3af57ee0.jpeg

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    • My God 1
    4 minutes ago, Metfan88 said:

    Upton is aggressive

    image.jpeg.042ad1cdd2874922a974c66a3af57ee0.jpeg

    Prob using NBM

    • Author
    5 minutes ago, Metfan88 said:

    Upton is aggressive

    image.jpeg.042ad1cdd2874922a974c66a3af57ee0.jpeg

    they never learn, Juno anyone?

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    1 minute ago, USAwx said:

    they never learn, Juno anyone?

    They should be at 6-10". Thump to snizzle. They can always ramp up later. Why go 14-15" out of the gate? Crazy.

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    Just now, gkrangers said:

    They should be at 6-10". Thump to snizzle. They can always ramp up later. Why go 14-15" out of the gate? Crazy.

    drugs

    2 minutes ago, gkrangers said:

    They should be at 6-10". Thump to snizzle. They can always ramp up later. Why go 14-15" out of the gate? Crazy.

    Mt Holly really high too

    10 minutes ago, PaulTarsus said:

    Screenshot_22-1-2026_124755_lab.weathermodels_com.jpeg.9481bf43e42d3f60b012ef97c9b0d259.jpegScreenshot_22-1-2026_124810_lab.weathermodels_com.jpeg.3464c202b8b3ce920d2ddb9fe781969c.jpeg

    I think this is the first time that I ever saw such agreement on every picture, amazing

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    • Thumbs Up 1
    Just now, FrankPizz said:

    Mt Holly really high too

    calling for 12-16" on barrier island

    they have to all be going with NBM/GFS

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    • Author

    Biggest NAM run in 200 years, into Rgem, RRFSA, Gfs , GFS AI, Euro Euro AI GGEM etc

    so NO BANTER OR BULLSHIT through 7PM

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    its better to be conservative with lower numbers only because it would make supermarkets barer...now you will be lucky to get in the parking lot...

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    • Haha 1

    Am I wrong or is the NBM just an average of models?

    Where is it getting its outrageously high totals from?

    Only the GFS can justify those numbers which means every other model should be dragging the average down.

    1 minute ago, Sundog said:

    Am I wrong or is the NBM just an average of models?

    Where is it getting its outrageously high totals from?

    Only the GFS can justify those numbers which means every other model should be dragging the average down.

    There are like 40-50 different ensemble members included in the NBM.

    It contains a lot more models than what we are able to look at for free. Obviously, some of them have some very high totals.

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