A changeover is inevitable down here.. but whoever hangs on to snow for the entire event should see over a foot.

Best threat for the entire forum in years. Been a while.

5 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

How were soundings on RGEM seeing a lot of people

On twitter saying soundings don’t support how far north it is (at least that’s the issue south of us) @Sundog

For NYC, soundings support sleet where it shows mixing starting at hour 75.

It's actually a rain sounding on the Jersey shore.

20 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Disregard that freezing rain bullshit and resulting crappier snowmaps for NYC on the ICON.

Just look at soundings and you'll see it's a mid level warm layer like 6000 feet up with everything below 850mb well below freezing.

That's at worst sleet.

All things said the mix threat is real, how far north it gets is unknown, but I'm seeing multiple models showing temperatures > 32F above the surface.

Just now, nesussxwx said:

All things said the mix threat is real, how far north it gets is unknown, but I'm seeing multiple models showing temperatures > 32F above the surface.

Minimum of 6" would have fell irrespective of what happens.

3 hours ago, mob1 said:

10 degrees in NYC at the onset of the precipitation, pretty cool (no pun intended).

Ratios will be insane at the start barring any significant wind threats.

18z GGEM:

Where the run ends at 84 hours:

Now comes the 18z GFS

4 minutes ago, SnowMiser123 said:

18z GGEM:

Where the run ends at 84 hours:

March '17

6 minutes ago, SnowMiser123 said:

18z GGEM:

Where the run ends at 84 hours:

How was the thump for us nyc Long Island peeps

GFS's precipitation map is not aligning with its soundings. I think Edison will be the battleground in terms of who stays as snow vs who changes over.

Obviously GFS is best case scenario for the tristate because it literally never stops snowing lol

Holy shit Central Jersey back in the game.