1 minute ago, Rdd9108 said:

I like that there's wiggle room north. That warm tongue terrifies me.

The low is occluding, i.e. cold air is wrapping around the low, as it heads northward, since it is transferring over to a coastal. That's why a lot of the model forecasts show a low overhead with snow. However, if that occluding process ends up being slower, i.e. a slower transfer to the coastal, then that can be a way our area sees more mixing in future runs.

FUCKING MICROSOFT FUCK YOU MOTHER FUCKER

UGGGGG

Just booked a flight into ACY and will be sitting in my sons semi rural yuge BY in the pines for this entire event.

4 minutes ago, Graupel said:

Mines in western Monmouth are near perfect on pivotal. Never goes beyond 31 at any height

Yeah -- somewhere in Middlessex/Monmouth will be where the changeover stop advancing IMO. Wouldn't be surprised to see one end with 12"+ and the other with 8".

Gulf and pacific recon wheels up for 0z data

8 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Gfs has been consistent please be right please lol wasn’t the GFS first model to move the storm closer last weekend and give us impacts?

GFS was horrific with the last couple of storms if I recall correctly. Take a blend of everything. 12"+ for most, and even if some areas see mixing it's not before at least half a foot has fallen.

Close up

^

GFS bomb

Just now, nesussxwx said:

GFS was horrific with the last couple of storms if I recall correctly. Take a blend of everything. 12"+ for most, and even if some areas see mixing it's not before at least half a foot has fallen.

Yes but I believe the gfs or AIGFS sniffed out last weekend trending form OTS to something first. I could be mistaken

1 minute ago, amugs said:

Close up

^

GFS bomb

Godzilla.

Lot of models also bumping up QPF

Just now, nycsnow said:

Yes but I believe the gfs or AIGFS sniffed out last weekend trending form OTS to something first. I could be mistaken

Meant for thermals -- I wouldn't trust the GFS. This will come down to nowcasting.

1 minute ago, nesussxwx said:

Meant for thermals -- I wouldn't trust the GFS. This will come down to nowcasting.

Ah gotcha, I was just talking bout the gfs solution. Hopefully it’s right for once and other models trend to it

18z UKIE/UKMET/UKMO

3 minutes ago, nesussxwx said:

Meant for thermals -- I wouldn't trust the GFS. This will come down to nowcasting.

Did you move farther south?

GFS not budging

Just now, USAwx said:

Moist

UKIE looks like a monster to me

@CooL

@Tornadojay

Just now, Sundog said:

Did you move farther south?

Yes. Might drive up for this one, but should do well down here as well.

yea, UKIE would NOT ride the coast and would be more like GFS