12z

18z

1 minute ago, USAwx said:

12z

18z

Looks farther north

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

Looks farther north

they are fucking identical as far as i can see

3 minutes ago, USAwx said:

they are ******* identical as far as i can see

The difference is small

4 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Looks farther north

It definitely is, you can see thicknesses are a bit further north. Not a massive difference, but it's there.

Just now, mob1 said:

It definitely is, you can see thicknesses are a bit further north. Not a massive difference, but it's there.

noise not over analyzing it

Still a northerly spread on the 18z GEFS members as the low nears 70W

Nice mean on the 18z GEFS:

At least for the HV and SNE, the 18z GFS is 20:1 ratios.

Just now, CT Valley Dryslot said:

At least for the HV and SNE, the 18z GFS is 20:1 ratios.

Fluff bomb if that's for real

Just now, Brian5671 said:

Fluff bomb if that's for real

Well it also means 15-20" of fluff it comes to fruition.

Depending on the ultimate track of the system, it remains possible
enough warm air could intrude aloft to force a brief mix with sleet
and/or freezing rain Sunday night, especially for NYC and Long
Island. Have only mentioned a slight chance of this occurring, and
at any rate the damage will have been done well before then as far
as meeting 6+ inch snowfall amounts.

Total QPF for the event should be roughly between 1.0-1.5 inches.
Watch mentions a boilerplate 6-12 inches likely with localized
accumulations over 12 inches, but the above QPF with higher snow
ratios could yield widespread potential accumulations of over a
foot.

9 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Nice mean on the 18z GFS:

the gefs are locked right into gfs. They also look like AI EPS and EPS to some extent

we need a meso on board at 12z tonight to give GFS credence

i am less concerned about another global now that we are inside 84 hours

biggest euro ai euro ai eps and eps run in 200 years coming up

Fascinating how many storms have had warm level surges lately

My understanding is that there is a new version of UKMET and it will come out later than previous versions did.

Canceled flight. Mixing FTL