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Tracking Historic DC and Jersey Blizzard

USAwx
USAwx
in Northeast Weather Discussion

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Can't discount the NAM with warm SW flow...

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Just now, gkrangers said:

Can't discount the NAM with warm SW flow...

Sadly you're right - primary held on way too long

Don't love these northward tics

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    • Like 1

    This might be a sleetfest after all Nam nailed that post Christmas storm

    00z vs 18z NAM side by side. You can see the weakness in the blocking on the 00z (circled)

    []img%5D

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    • Like 1

    But still does show almost 10 inches before change over

    • Like 1
    Just now, SnowMiser123 said:

    image.png

    Some more left to go:

    nam_84.png

    That warm tongue is definitely concerning.

    • Author
    1 minute ago, SnowMiser123 said:

    image.png

    Some more left to go:

    nam_84.png

    THIS. Storm isn't over yet

    1 minute ago, Rdd9108 said:

    That warm tongue is definitely concerning.

    Warmest model by far that trended colder & now keeps us all snow. Not concerned yet.

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    • Like 2
    Just now, Tornadojay said:

    NAM

    IMG_3131.gif

    Pretty crappy, esp in Jersey where holly went 12-18 lol

    • Author
    Just now, nycsnow said:

    Pretty crappy, esp in Jersey where holly went 12-18 lol

    it's one model run from a model that likes to over amp and over do mid level warmth

    EVERYONE FUCKING RELAX

    • Like 2
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    1 minute ago, Tornadojay said:

    NAM

    IMG_3131.gif

    Imagine after all this tracking it turns into a 3 inch storm to Asbury Park?

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    • Sad 1
    • My God 1
    2 minutes ago, Tornadojay said:

    NAM

    IMG_3131.gif

    Oh no. That’s horrible.

    Punch in gut but NAM can be jumpy.

    1 minute ago, USAwx said:

    it's one model run from a model that likes to over amp and over do mid level warmth

    EVERYONE ******* RELAX

    You know who's relaxing? The guy that's always saying he's smoking cirrus lol

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    • Haha 2
    • Thumbs Up 1
    Just now, Mjh609 said:

    Oh no. That’s horrible.

    Let’s not panic over one run.

    It's pretty surreal how the GFS is adamant about making the secondary the dominant low, while others prefer to make the primary the dominant one. The difference between 12" and 6" for places.

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    • Thanks 1

    anyone got a sounding for long island during the sleet

    • Author
    Just now, Frank_Wx said:

    It's pretty surreal how the GFS is adamant about making the secondary the dominant low, while others prefer to make the primary the dominant one. The difference between 12" and 6" for places.

    The 18z euro aifs eps etc were great runs

    this is ONE nam run at an extended range

    we need to see the entire 00z suite

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    https://www.usa-wx.com/forum/topic/8408-tracking-historic-dc-and-jersey-blizzard/
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