1 minute ago, Sundog said:

Did you ever think you'd see a model take JFK above freezing with such a frigid air mass in place?

That's what the RGEM does.

Many times..sleet usually is a feature in all winter storms here.

It really doesnt make sense. A huge high to the north and a weak ***** low only over the wv panhandle with the kind of antecedent air mass we have in place? I've seen weaker highs with stronger lows going into Youngstown and less non-snow than this. It just doesn't make sense. Maybe I am not even looking at things correctly, but it really doesnt make sense to blast that much warm air, especially at the surface. Nearshore ssts are cold, too

Just now, Graupel said:

At any rate. I checked my soundings with the NAM and it drops an impressive V-day amount of 5” of sleet after 5 or 6” inches of snow. That would be an impressive event to see leaving about 8-9” of concrete.

That would actually be super rare with that much of each. Im not sure ive ever seen that. Super cool really

By the time the 0C 850mb line gets to NYC, the best frontogenesis is to the north. You lose 0.2-0.3 inches of QPF to mixed precip -- out of 1.0.

Just now, Keith P.A said:

Many times..sleet usually is a feature in all winter storms here.

Not above freezing at the surface. Even when the mid level warmth is correct, the surface is usually modeled too warm.

Just now, FrankPizz said:

That would actually be super rare with that much of each. Im not sure ive ever seen that. Super cool really

That might be higher impact than pure snow

Just now, Analog1888 said:

That might be higher impact than pure snow

Totally. If it happened like that, id actually be more pumped than 10" of snow

very unstable sounding

i could see snow winning out with a marginal sounding based on precip rates

thunder snow is likely

Just now, Keith P.A said:

Many times..sleet usually is a feature in all winter storms here.

Yea but I'm talking about above freezing temps at the surface. It's 34 degrees and raining at JFK at hour 75 if you look at soundings.

1 minute ago, FrankPizz said:

That would actually be super rare with that much of each. Im not sure ive ever seen that. Super cool really

Very rare. But I wouldn’t be surprised with Arctic air in place and weak arse surface low.

3 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

It really doesnt make sense. A huge high to the north and a weak ***** low only over the wv panhandle with the kind of antecedent air mass we have in place? I've seen weaker highs with stronger lows going into Youngstown and less non-snow than this. It just doesn't make sense. Maybe I am not even looking at things correctly, but it really doesnt make sense to blast that much warm air, especially at the surface. Nearshore ssts are cold, too

850mb low is north of Pittsburgh

On the GFS it barely touches PA

Night and day difference

9 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

The sleet line keeps trending north and faster. 3 days to go might be sleet fest by the time we get to Saturday’s models

Please stop complaining

2 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

It really doesnt make sense. A huge high to the north and a weak ***** low only over the wv panhandle with the kind of antecedent air mass we have in place? I've seen weaker highs with stronger lows going into Youngstown and less non-snow than this. It just doesn't make sense. Maybe I am not even looking at things correctly, but it really doesnt make sense to blast that much warm air, especially at the surface. Nearshore ssts are cold, too

I agree it makes little sense. Just got to keep tracking and hope whatever is causing the High closest to us to the North to retreat allowing that primary to cut and why it remains the dominant feature is not sampled well by the meso models and the Canadian Global.

Rapid refresh model already has 9 inches for NYC by 9:00 Sunday night 👍

2 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Yea but I'm talking about above freezing temps at the surface. It's 34 degrees and raining at JFK at hour 75 if you look at soundings.

I sincerely, sincerely doubt anyone north if 195 goes above freezing at the surface.
Even if the entire storm was sleet, the surface should not warm like that.