I mean, the model with the biggest progressive bias is 50 miles too east, and we are complaining?

Just now, Blizzard2020 said:

The NW shield looks crappy. Is it because it is chasing convection?

occluding. you are losing the CCB

Right! Keep in mind to keep the precip going, you need to sustain at least one key forcing method.. frotogenesis, vorticity advection, upper level jet streak dynamics, etc. if you lose baroclinicity, it dies.. go into cold air advection, it’ll die. The models are outputting QPF in various spots for a reason .. it’s simply not going to generate QPF if forcing isn’t there.. Met 101 fact of life

The vort so far on the GEFS looks pretty potent which could be a good sign.. have a feeling the GEFS will look pretty decent

.

Looks like there’s some LI sound ocean effect snow development going on per radar that is moving into the CT coast line

5 minutes ago, Tornadojay said:

Right! Keep in mind to keep the precip going, you need to sustain at least one key forcing method.. frotogenesis, vorticity advection, upper level jet streak dynamics, etc. if you lose baroclinicity, it dies.. go into cold air advection, it’ll die. The models are outputting QPF in various spots for a reason .. it’s simply not going to generate QPF if forcing isn’t there.. Met 101 fact of life

I have a high suspicion that most of the NWP are erroneously occluding the system too far south. A 975 mb low off Va Beach would be unprecedented (especially while dropping 2+ ft in S VA). I don’t see how this doesn’t correct further north and with more NNW SLP progression. Reminds me of Dec 2000.

This is pretty nuts verbatim. AC gets a foot with winds 20-30 mph?

Vort looks well constructed still with all those ensemble members… this might be a decent GEFS run

1 minute ago, Tornadojay said:

Looks like there’s some LI sound ocean effect snow development going on per radar that is moving into the CT coast line

it has been snowing here all day. Very icy out. People will die.

2 minutes ago, Tornadojay said:

Looks like there’s some LI sound ocean effect snow development going on per radar that is moving into the CT coast line

We picked up a coating as it rolled through here

Just now, Tornadojay said:

Vort looks well constructed still with all those ensemble members… this might be a decent GEFS run

i think our ridge out west is really changing at 18z. it might be now forcing the kicker deeper into the trough and amplifying our east coast storm

probably why the icon EPS showed some inland runners

FUJIWARA.

This is how close you are

oh boy

GEFS more amplified than 12z

To me, this is a good signal.. considering all the members… it looks just like the operational.. tight/closed off leading me to believe the ensemble members might be tightly clustered

Incoming for the PIT crew

@Rdd9108 @PaulTarsus

Have a major squall line coming though over next few hours. Nothing in forecast for this but squall warnings popping Cleveland and south.

It’s beautiful.. it might be more ticks east than what we want but it’s a good look