Is this a southern portion of what would be our 50/50? It too seems to be pushing the whole trough too far south and east. If that can get further north and west in positioning maybe that would help us out better to orient the northern part of the trough to be more north to south in positioning? Similar to the keep them separate post @THE GREAT Ben Solo made earlier.

I WOULD say that is a big uptick on the eps

Wow

CLOSER. Not the GEFS or ICON EPS yet

but better

Very good trends.

Need more inside benchmark

Also keep in mind, there is a little clipper system passing through on Thursday that will likely become our 50/50.

This is still in a pretty data sparse region.

We probably don't know the final outcome of this storm until Friday 00Z or 12Z (Friday morning) runs.

We need to see what that clipper does, where it goes, how strong it gets, and how it interacts with the flow.

5 minutes ago, USAwx said:

CLOSER. Not the GEFS or ICON EPS yet

but better

Those are Blizzards

Thats whats coming I95 E

14 minutes ago, jjvesnow said:

Better

Look at all the improvements here. Ridge farther west, sharper. East side of trough kinking in, closed contour in trough, all in one run at 100 hours lead time.

.

2 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Look at all the improvements here. Ridge farther west, sharper. East side of trough kinking in, closed controur in trough, all in one run at 100 hours lead time.

Gotta get the confluence out faster too

Better

Beautiful

Here are some facials from the gefs

16 minutes ago, ColdDustNJ said:

Wow

The way that trough is set up it looks like the bottom part is going to swing through and then become negatively tilted eventually.