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Balance of January and all of February with a Hint of March Storm Tracking Thread

USAwx
USAwx
in Northeast Weather Discussion

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Icon south again

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  • USAwx
    USAwx

    .

  • THE GREAT PB
    THE GREAT PB

    And your friend P. B. called Jan 15 - Feb 15 from early January. Not too shabby. Next period Feb 20 - March 10. Going to run this winter BN wire to wire November - March. Just crazy

  • Metfan88
    Metfan88

    Wife in labor

13 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

IIcon south again

I am shocked!!

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    • Haha 1

    AIGFS locked in on south hasn’t wavered in days.

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    • Like 1

    Any interesting weather coming up? Asking for a friend!

    Nope

    10 minutes ago, Jefflaw77 said:

    Any interesting weather coming up? Asking for a friend!

    You have friend?

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    • Haha 1

    Without phasing and blocking it’s hard to see that there will be enough cold

    Air in place for snow inland the NYC metro area

    3 minutes ago, heavysnow said:

    Without phasing and blocking it’s hard to see that there will be enough cold

    Air in place for snow inland the NYC metro area

    Next model runs will be better!

    6 hours ago, SnowMiser123 said:

    We have been subtly trending colder for next week over the last couple days on the GFS:

    gfs_trend.gif

    18z gfs went the other way

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    • Like 1
    9 minutes ago, Metfan88 said:

    18z gfs went the other way

    kick the can time...everything just falls apart

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    • Haha 1
    1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

    kick the can time...everything just falls apart

    Its not even can kicking when there are no storms haha. South, north, east....

    6 minutes ago, FrankPizz said:

    Its not even can kicking when there are no storms haha. South, north, east....

    Terrible. Just bone dry since the big storm. I've had .20 at best here

    3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

    Terrible. Just bone dry since the big storm. I've had .20 at best here

    Yup same. Its really amazing that there is still like 5" pack out there with no precip for 3 weeks

    I believe we finish in the top three drives February is on record if not the driest February on record. I don’t care what the models say. I don’t care what the tele connections are. I don’t care what the MJO is, we are in a very, very dry pattern and is not breaking anytime soon.

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    • Like 1

    Going to need understand what happens with this circled energy off the AK coast. Once that is understood could be some of most dramatic changes to surface representations you've seen in quite some time. Or could be a nothing burger as 12Z models have offered after showing bombs overnight, but that's the kind of the fun in these phase opportunities, they're usually boom or bust. Usually bust but every once in a while...


    Enlarge this imageClick to see fullsize
    Long Range Thread 31.0 - Page 13 Gfs-de78

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    • Like 2

    20th - 10th next period

    ecmwf-aifs-all-ne-total_snow_10to1-2042400.png

    1 hour ago, Momouthweathet said:

    You have friend?

    Do you have a sense of humor? 🙄

    AI euro eps further north

    698d126f11f5b.png

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    • Like 1

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