13 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

Also keep in mind, there is a little clipper system passing through on Thursday that will likely become our 50/50.

This is still in a pretty data sparse region.

We probably don't know the final outcome of this storm until Friday 00Z or 12Z (Friday morning) runs.

We need to see what that clipper does, where it goes, how strong it gets, and how it interacts with the flow.

I remember something like that happens on February 4, 2010 a little clipper came by I believe it was a clipper earlier in that morning and dropped about a inch or so of snow in New York City and that became the 50-50 but it ended up being in the wrong position and that caused the confluence for the suppression of the February 5-6 2010 storm. Hopefully this time we have a better set up

Just now, Andrew said:

I remember something like that happens on February 4, 2010 a little clipper came by I believe it was a clipper earlier in that morning and dropped about a inch or so of snow in New York City and that became the 50-50 but it ended up being in the wrong position and that caused the confluence for the suppression of the February 5-6 2010 storm. Hopefully this time we have a better set up

I never use that analog because you will probably never see that intense of a cutoff ever again.

9 minutes ago, USAwx said:

Here are some facials from the gefs

Wow

around 20+ of the 30 members are aligned favorably. The small spread out west makes it likely there will be trough amplification and a negative tilt makes It favorable wrap-around moisture / banding off of the Atlantic

Also negative nao rebounding - looks to be good timing so that this doesn't get pushed out to sea

I'm all in on this one

8 minutes ago, ColdDustNJ said:

Beautiful

.

.

Ukmet ensembles

27 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

Thats whats coming I95 E

selfish, us northerner's want this also, this is coming north🤣

3 minutes ago, VIRGAMAN said:

selfish, us northerner's want this also, this is coming north🤣

Im sorry brother you will snow on the 6th

This one breaks along 95 and out on LI

You may snow a bit but this like BDB Jan 18 type

18 minutes ago, ColdDustNJ said:

around 20+ of the 30 members are aligned favorably. The small spread out west makes it likely there will be trough amplification and a negative tilt makes It favorable wrap-around moisture / banding off of the Atlantic

Also negative nao rebounding - looks to be good timing so that this doesn't get pushed out to sea

I'm all in on this one

.

Yeh some killed it and spat on me

Never forget

Recon mission up, should be on 00z

19 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

Im sorry brother you will snow on the 6th

This one breaks along 95 and out on LI

You may snow a bit but this like BDB Jan 18 type

January 4, 2018 and January 29, 2022 Suffolk County was in a blizzard warning and it verified. I don’t believe we reached licit criteria but I could definitely see another 6 to 8 inches here as of now but with a lot more wind so near blizzard conditions possibly. Of course it’s time to get closer and we could end up like that. Hopefully that happens

.

Holly honking

Storm is coming the trend is our friend

Big totals Nyc

13 minutes ago, Graupel said:

Holly honking

Really wouldn't take much for you and Ben Solo to break a foot with this one.

I’m feeling this. Seems like we get a Jan 18 Feb 22 every 4 years and it wants to snow.

2 minutes ago, gkrangers said:

Really wouldn't take much for you and Ben Solo to break a foot with this one.

2 minutes ago, Graupel said:

I’m feeling this. Seems like we get a Jan 18 Feb 22 every 4 years and it wants to snow.

I think we are gonna know by 12z tomorrow if its gonna break far enough west to support something like this...there is still plenty of time to trend either way, but we should know if its gonna hit or not pretty soon...then we can move on or sort out the details.

KMA backs in bands into the tristate:

EVERYONE KEEP THE GOOD JEW JEW GOING!