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Balance of January and all of February with a Hint of March Storm Tracking Thread

USAwx
USAwx
in Northeast Weather Discussion

Featured Replies

48 minutes ago, SnowMiser123 said:

GRAF futurecast model for Sunday night

sfcp_65.0_bg_NE.png?st=260213141538

How Steffi Graf fell in love with ...

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    • USAwx
      USAwx

      .

    • THE GREAT PB
      THE GREAT PB

      And your friend P. B. called Jan 15 - Feb 15 from early January. Not too shabby. Next period Feb 20 - March 10. Going to run this winter BN wire to wire November - March. Just crazy

    • Metfan88
      Metfan88

      Wife in labor

    54 minutes ago, Graupel said:

    image.png

    dc to Ben Solo

    55 minutes ago, Graupel said:

    image.png

    Euro AI either going to be a hero with this or epic fail given it is doubling down on this solution inside of 72 hours. 3-6" Rte 78 South and solid 2" for me, be wild if it's right but will have hard to trust any output from this moving forward if nobody N of Cape May sees measurable snow.

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    • Like 1

    NAO looks like it moves back to positive territory next 2 weeks ..

    nao.gfs.fcst.png

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    • Sad 1
    4 minutes ago, uncle w said:

    dc to Ben Solo

    Yup For now: the Stephie Graf above it looks a lot more N.

    It’s coming

    full run

    image.png

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    • Mind Blown 1
    • Pray 1
    54 minutes ago, Sundog said:

    Quite the flip flopper after being rock steady with our major snowstorm last month.

    Different models are better in Different patterns.

    • Like 1

    EPS is snowy as well

    698f72f500906.png

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    • Like 3

    Grain of salt for now…there is plenty of salt to go around especially on the roads.

    • Thanks 1
    • Haha 2

    Pretty crazy spread for a 3 day EPS forecast

    1771243200-SHZ9O3wqex4.png

    1771243200-4q6ztwhy3mw.png

    2 hours ago, Keith O said:

    Euro AI was full on plowable event, no sure AIFS ever went there. Of course now 12z GFS brings accumulation to central NJ. All these models have problems, not sure how much we have progressed in last 5+ years.

    AIFS are the Euro AI. Maybe you were thinking the AIGFS. Too many models, lol

    10 minutes ago, SnowMiser123 said:

    Pretty crazy spread for a 3 day EPS forecast

    1771243200-SHZ9O3wqex4.png

    1771243200-4q6ztwhy3mw.png

    Wow! Yeah it is. Not something you see often being so close.

    • Like 1

    Euro has 60s in a few weeks for the NYC metro

    Sign me up!

    sfct-imp.conus.png

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    Just now, danstorm said:

    Euro has 60s in a few weeks for the NYC metro

    Sign me up!

    sfct-imp.conus.png

    And then next run it will be colder. Happening all winter.

    couple burp runs for this weekend...not buying it

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    2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

    couple burp runs for this weekend...not buying it

    It's coming...

    December 2026 - March 2027

    🤣

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    4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

    couple burp runs for this weekend...not buying it

    The top 3 models in verification scores have some snow, aifs, euro and weathernext. Crazy how crappy this weekends modeling has been.

    • Like 3
    2 minutes ago, FrankPizz said:

    The top 3 models in verification scores have some snow, aifs, euro and weathernext. Crazy how crappy this weekends modeling has been.

    that's the only reason to keep a faint hope alive-if it were the ICON Korean and CRAS we'd know it's 100% garbage. In this case it's 90% garbage

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    ICON a bit better than 12z

    prateptype_cat_icon-imp.us_ne.png

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    • Like 1

    Icon would be 1-2 inches at 10:1

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