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Balance of January and all of February with a Hint of March Storm Tracking Thread

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1 hour ago, uncle w said:

68-69 comes close and it wasn't as cold...

These past 3 weeks have set the standard for the longest snowpack given the amount of Central Park got in the storm 11.4 inches. We had the most days with the maximum below 32 on consecutive days and the coldest average temperature after the storm by a significant margin.

This is a historical period no matter what happens for the rest of the season and we won’t see this again in our lifetime.

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  • THE GREAT PB
    THE GREAT PB

    And your friend P. B. called Jan 15 - Feb 15 from early January. Not too shabby. Next period Feb 20 - March 10. Going to run this winter BN wire to wire November - March. Just crazy

  • Metfan88
    Metfan88

    Wife in labor

48/31

image.png

Sooner or later one of these has to land. Has to.

1 minute ago, nesussxwx said:

48/31

43/29

4 minutes ago, Momouthweathet said:

43/29

Beautiful day. Can't wait for the warmer weather.

Euro also on board with a coastal for the 23rd

Light rain is pretty far north here in SW PA - that should generally bode well for a light snow event in NJ-NYC overnight.

Why are models struggling mightily this fall and winter? Less balloon data collection? Atmosphere is just more complex due to tropical complexity? Computer upgrades are not accounting for ??? Missing what??

How can as ppinted out models with 60 hours can not get this? Its been an issues most of this winter and fall. We have taken 2 steps back with forecasting and one step forward with the tools we have for forecasting but have we?

Ai didn't want anything to do with this and now have come N bigly and show some light accumulations for the entire area.

Hoping for things to align the next few weeks to get to N snowfall.

Euro jackpots @Graupel n Ben Solo.

ecmwf-deterministic-nyc-total_snow_10to1-1246800.png

1 hour ago, heavysnow said:

It’s over a week away. Tonight’s event looked real 7-10 days ago as well

Gonna snow tonite boy.

Obs….

Lower and thickening clouds

40

Northeast winds

Gonna get 2” I think.

The HRRR is underestimating the northward extent of the light rain across SW PA - still gives 1-3" from CNJ to NYC.

hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_1 (4).png

KPBZ - Super-Res Reflectivity 1, 1_25 PM.png

hrrr_asnow_neus_18 (2).png

7 minutes ago, SnowMiser123 said:

The HRRR is underestimating the northward extent of the light rain across SW PA - still gives 1-3" from CNJ to NYC.

hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_1 (4).png

KPBZ - Super-Res Reflectivity 1, 1_25 PM.png

hrrr_asnow_neus_18 (2).png

Thanks for the analysis. Maybe we can get an overperformer on tye Northern fringe.

Eps loves the 23rd

6992166277c45.png

HRRR increasing amounts

image0.jpg

image.png

38:29 of course KDIX down again.

2 hours ago, nesussxwx said:

48/31

Damn only 39/25 here..

Looks like dewpoint gets above 32 for first time since 1/14 here on Tue (2/17), 34 straight days. That feels like some sorta record.

Dew dropping on e wind 36:28

36.3/27.8 humidity 71%. Winds ESE@ 7.2mph

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