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Balance of January and all of February with a Hint of March Storm Tracking Thread

USAwx
USAwx
in Northeast Weather Discussion

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8 minutes ago, ChescoWeather said:

After today we should see temperatures at above normal levels for the remainder of the work week. In fact, after tomorrow morning, we should remain above freezing day and night until likely next Sunday morning. This should finally start to melt away much of the snow cover which as of today has been on the ground for 31 straight days which is tied for the 12th longest stretch and 16th overall since 1893. We should see multiple rain chances with light rain possible Wednesday and more beneficial rains toward the weekend. The next chance at any wintry precipitation will be toward the end of next weekend.

image.png.2d720d32e8ff8dbb32b0d5a6b9c23588.pngimage.thumb.png.177c3660909ef1d575c1846d0c264c02.png

Naso fast with the snowmelt. Why they’re definitely will be snow melt this week. It is not going to be rapid because the frozen sleet is compacted and it’s takes a lot longer to melt that if it was regular snow. A lot of people are expecting background by next week, but I don’t believe that’s going to be the case at all. The depths of the snow pack is definitely going to take a big hit, but this still should be snow on the ground by next week and and hopefully we end up getting another storm.

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    • USAwx
      USAwx

      .

    • THE GREAT PB
      THE GREAT PB

      And your friend P. B. called Jan 15 - Feb 15 from early January. Not too shabby. Next period Feb 20 - March 10. Going to run this winter BN wire to wire November - March. Just crazy

    • Metfan88
      Metfan88

      Wife in labor

    This piece farther south also can't get too far ahead of the northern piece or else the southern piece will shear out & you won't get much of a storm. Fairly delicate balance across the west coast 3 days from now, which is why you are seeing big changes run to run still.

    69933d558323b.png

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    • Like 3

    6z GFS

    12z ICON bangers

    AIGFS hates this

    • Like 1

    At least it has a storm

    500hv.conus.png

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    10 minutes ago, FrankPizz said:

    At least it has a storm

    500hv.conus.png

    Very nice at this point in time. Very trackable.

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    • Like 1

    Still nice

    699342b6e5131.png

    699342d25a864.png

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    • Like 2

    The Canadian shows what can't happen for us to get the storm - shortwave gets completely sheared out in the west & we are left with no storm.

    1 minute ago, SnowMiser123 said:

    The Canadian shows what can't happen for us to get the storm - shortwave gets completely sheared out in the west & we are left with no storm.

    Canadians were also horrible with yesterdays storm

    12z gfs gets going a little Late… Long Island SNE Bomb

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    • Like 1
    1 minute ago, SnowMiser123 said:

    The Canadian shows what can't happen for us to get the storm - shortwave gets completely sheared out in the west & we are left with no storm.

    Canadian has been so unreliable.

    Icon is 18-24 for most

    • Haha 1

    UKMET looks like it would be nice:

    Screenshot 2026-02-16 at 11.20.12 AM.png

    • Like 1

    NAM would definitely have been in the ICON/GFS/UKMET camp with how amplified the shortwave was over the west coast

    nam_84.png

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    • Like 2
    22 minutes ago, SnowMiser123 said:

    UKMET looks like it would be nice:

    Screenshot 2026-02-16 at 11.20.12 AM.png

    This was 12z? Not running yet on the other sites.

    Here's the Meteocentre UKMET view

    GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

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    • Like 1

    I mean that is close to being a perfect snowstorm map on the UKMET. Wish that was closer in time.

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    • Like 4
    1 minute ago, SnowMiser123 said:

    I mean that is close to being a perfect snowstorm map on the UKMET. Wish that was closer in time.

    Yeah, that looks beautiful. Wish it was 48 hours out, haha

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    • Like 2

    image.png

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    • Like 3

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