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Balance of January and all of February with a Hint of March Storm Tracking Thread

USAwx
USAwx
in Northeast Weather Discussion

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  • USAwx
    USAwx

    .

  • THE GREAT PB
    THE GREAT PB

    And your friend P. B. called Jan 15 - Feb 15 from early January. Not too shabby. Next period Feb 20 - March 10. Going to run this winter BN wire to wire November - March. Just crazy

  • Metfan88
    Metfan88

    Wife in labor

Dr No is running

2 hours ago, uncle w said:

Of all the storms modeled to be big only one came true and that was modeled to hit DC at first…I’ll get excited if it is still on the radar Friday…

Agreed but still fun to track. Given how bad the models have been this season we can’t get our hopes up too much

10 minutes ago, SnowMiser123 said:

6994a4c58a365.png

6994a4d791b22.png

Obviously not a bad solution, but looks like a step in the wrong direction compared to its previous run.

1 minute ago, gkrangers said:

Obviously not a bad solution, but looks like a step in the wrong direction compared to its previous run.

Yes, a little worse than 6z. My guess is that probably doesn't bode well for the Euro, but we will see.

AIFS still a 10-16" snowstorm, this will waffle for the next several days but that a big event is on every model at this lead time is pretty remarkable

sn10_acc-imp.conus.png

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    Sloppy run

    6994a996d2ac9.png

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    Euro is not the steadfast, reliable model of the past.

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    Just now, Castellanus said:

    Euro is not the steadfast, reliable model of the past.

    Ai euro eps is better. Euro has been horrible all winter.

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    Always one ugly stepchild ..

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    It’s there to curb our enthusiasm.

    It's an unfavorable phase that causes the shortwave to shear out - entirely possible & not knowable if that is the case or not 5 days out.

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    1 minute ago, Redo said:

    It’s there to curb our enthusiasm.

    it's possible it does miss S and E-this has been the seasonal trend with a few storms

    1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

    it's possible it does miss S and E-this has been the seasonal trend with a few storms

    As of right now it seems to be the outlier.

    EPS also a little worse than 6z

    6994af683320f.png

    2 minutes ago, SnowMiser123 said:

    EPS also a little worse than 6z

    6994af683320f.png

    Maybe its right but whats up with the euro and eps this winter ? It has been struggling.

    Maybe it’s reverse Juno at play.

    2 minutes ago, Metfan88 said:

    Maybe its right but whats up with the euro and eps this winter ? It has been struggling.

    Is it struggling though? A model isn't automatically bad just because it doesn't show your most preferred solution.

    Just now, Sundog said:

    Is it struggling though? A model isn't automatically bad just because it doesn't show your most preferred solution.

    Never trust an outlier.

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