1 hour ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

Would be the greatest ever

" if " happens

Looks a little like Feb 2021

3 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Is it struggling though? A model isn't automatically bad just because it doesn't show your most preferred solution.

Hearing that a lot here. Verification scores don't lie...

3 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Is it struggling though? A model isn't automatically bad just because it doesn't show your most preferred solution.

GEFS are mostly a miss and even the Euro AI is more S and E. It's not a true outlier.

3 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Is it struggling though? A model isn't automatically bad just because it doesn't show your most preferred solution.

Are you serious ? It has been trash.

3 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

Never trust an outlier.

At 5 days with a delicate setup? I trust nothing, whether it's an outlier or it's following the consensus.

Just now, Metfan88 said:

Are you serious ? It has been trash.

You make it sound like you got 50 inches so far and the Euro was showing misses constantly. You got barely 20 to 25 so far.

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

You make it sound like you got 50 inches so far and the Euro was showing misses constantly. You got barely 20 to 25 so far.

People hear what they want to hear. Still far out but some red flags....2 misses S and E on the last 2 storms and a general lack of benchmark storms the past few years. Obviously a lot of potential here but alot can go wrong at 5 days out

3 minutes ago, Sundog said:

At 5 days with a delicate setup? I trust nothing, whether it's an outlier or it's following the consensus.

Do what you want. As long as people think this way, there will be more JUNOs in the future.

2 minutes ago, Sundog said:

You make it sound like you got 50 inches so far and the Euro was showing misses constantly. You got barely 20 to 25 so far.

It's been pretty bad. I think it led the way with 1 out of the 5 east coast storms this season.

54 minutes ago, heavysnow said:

Agreed but still fun to track. Given how bad the models have been this season we can’t get our hopes up too much

Lol many will say the hopes are in check but I know the reality of snowlovers

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

People hear what they want to hear. Still far out but some red flags....2 misses S and E on the last 2 storms and a general lack of benchmark storms the past few years. Obviously a lot of potential here but alot can go wrong at 5 days out

Lack of precipitation too. When was the last time you guys had a significant bust over the entire region with overall precipitation? (not snow because ratios can bump those up)

4 minutes ago, Snowlover76 said:

Lack of precipitation too. When was the last time you guys had a significant bust over the entire region with overall precipitation? (not snow because ratios can bump those up)

Probably the last 3 storms all produced equal to or more QPF than advertised.

Models haven't done a bad job with that in the east.

5 minutes ago, Snowlover76 said:

Lack of precipitation too. When was the last time you guys had a significant bust over the entire region with overall precipitation? (not snow because ratios can bump those up)

Been generally bone dry since Sept 2024. The 1/25 storm was wet like 1.50 inches give or take but that's been it for awhile

Just now, Brian5671 said:

Been generally bone dry since Sept 2024. The 1/25 storm was wet like 1.50 inches give or take but that's been it for awhile

Yes it's been dry, but models have not really overdone precip, at least within 72-96 hours.

20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

GEFS are mostly a miss and even the Euro AI is more S and E. It's not a true outlier.

Huh

AIFS ensembles keep amplifying

A major snowstorm is coming.

2 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

Huh

Compare the GFS ensembles to the CMC ensembles...not nearly as good.

2 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

Huh

The EURO AI OP is SE of and weaker than 6z by a lot:

6z:

12z:

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Compare the GFS ensembles to the CMC ensembles...not nearly as good.

5 days out this is perfect

Just now, Sundog said:

The EURO AI OP is SE of and weaker than 6z by a lot:

6z:

12z:

Got rid of the western outliers