Gfs looks like it has a norlun type feature.

1 minute ago, Analog1888 said:

00-01 is underrated because of what happened March 5. If that storm was a big one, that winter would have been an a+

I got 16” in Fairfield County during March 01. Less than expected but not bad. Clearly it was an epic bust just SW of me. 02/05/01 in CT was amazingly dynamic and 12/30/00 which I missed in FL with family

Plenty of other events too

3 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

Gfs looks like it has a norlun type feature.

Yeah never ending Norlun. Low is hundreds of miles offshore.

Consistent runs for 5 days of 12+ in the I-95 was not going to happen. I rather see the miss to SE instead of a SLP over PHL at the point. This still has time to recover to MECS within 48 hrs.

1 minute ago, Analog1888 said:

Gfs looks like it has a norlun type feature.

From a potential blizzard to hoping for a lucky norlun which is usually very localized in 12 hours. Plenty of time to go and things could of course trend better but this is an unfortunate development in just one or 2 model suites.

At this lead time though, it is not surprising.

Ai GFS was an areawide MECS but ….

Once again the media jinxed another storm. Earlier today the media on TV were mentioning a possible major snowstorm this weekend.

Wow this 0z suite is absolutely awful. It’s over lmao just bring on sprint I’m done with making the goal post every week

Another bed ***** inside 120. Josh is right pac is killing us. CMC doa

lol

The one thing I will say is that the tellies dont scream a major snowstorm with a positive NAO and negative PNA. There is some left over blocking with a decaying block and a brief pna spike but not sure if its enough. The euro is most likely seeing that.

6 minutes ago, Castellanus said:

Consistent runs for 5 days of 12+ in the I-95 was not going to happen. I rather see the miss to SE instead of a SLP over PHL at the point. This still has time to recover to MECS within 48 hrs.

At this point we are hoping for a Boxing Day type recovery in the modeling but that's about all we've got. However, I doubt we have the favorable ingredients/setup with this storm as we did with that storm.

With such drastic changes tonight, it seems that something was sampled very differently over Canada this evening.

3 minutes ago, Castellanus said:

With such drastic changes tonight, it seems that something was sampled very differently over Canada this evening.

Recon went up.

Josh - knew it…. Same pattern since 2009….

@THE GREAT Ben Solo

Modeling went to garbage in one run and as is typical too many live and die run by run lol, though with the added recon tonight it's possible the 23rd is truly going to go to crap.

From your perspective, are you throwing in the towel on the 20th to the 10th time frame for meaningful snow though maybe still we see verification on a bit of a colder than normal stretch?

Ukie is a rain/snow shower maybe if that

Gefs

Ukie same as the others, even has the 1-3”

Norlun

1 minute ago, Graupel said:

Ukie same as the others, even has the 1-3”

Norlun

Which makes sense given that the GFS and AIFS had a foot of snow here 60hrs before getting 2”