.

Today is only Wed coastal storms can and have done crazy shifts on models even within 48 hrs for good and bad. Right now this one looks like a close miss or a graze but I wouldn’t completely write it off until Friday unless you see farther OTS solutions today and tomorrow.

Deform band usually sets up north and west of the best forcing. We have time!

Want this badly

9 minutes ago, USAwx said:

Want this badly

I'll give out 100 dollars to the top 5 posters today and tomorrow if this verifies

18 minutes ago, lindywx said:

Deform band usually sets up north and west of the best forcing. We have time!

Negative tilt possible?

I could only find one Chester County station that fell to below zero this morning and that was our usual cold spot up in Warwick Township with a low of 2.6 below zero. Almost all spot saw lows in the single digits above zero. If anything, we get progressively colder the rest of this week with highs through Saturday several degrees lower than yesterday. Highs will be in the mid to upper teens with lows near zero to below. The potential weekend storm still looks like it will miss our area to the east toward the NJ shore but will need to be watched for any potential changes.

I’m not giving up yet.. it’s not like the worst of the model suite got worse even more.. they’re in pretty good agreement and it’s not terribly offshore.. once one model suite picks up on a change, they’ll all follow suit… I’d give it till Friday.

Most stations are between 1 and 2 degrees below normal and we will add plenty to that negative departure over the last few days of the month.

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

Most stations are between 1 and 2 degrees below normal and we will add plenty to that negative departure over the last few days of the month.

Hudson might be rock solid by end of week

Stefs!!!

3 minutes ago, USAwx said:

Stefs!!!

We need them to curl up afterward.

6z GFS was on the Carolina coast and then it went offshore and out to sea after that.

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

We need them to curl up afterward.

6z GFS was on the Carolina coast and then it went offshore and out to sea after that.

Agree but look at 3z. They were horrible. Huge jump.

Keep in mind that the Atlantic holds an important part of this puzzle too.. here’s yesterdays decent GFS run and the latest euro.. the strength and positioning of the ridge axis will be critical.. definitely a decent ridge building.. the phasing of 500 will be most critical but this is important too

We always got the CFS on our side at least 😭

1 minute ago, Tornadojay said:

Keep in mind that the Atlantic holds an important part of this puzzle too.. here’s yesterdays decent GFS run and the latest euro.. the strength and positioning of the ridge axis will be critical.. definitely a decent ridge building.. the phasing of 500 will be most critical but this is important too

A captured and then expansion of the low pressure possible?

Def a nice west lean

19 minutes ago, Tornadojay said:

I’m not giving up yet.. it’s not like the worst of the model suite got worse even more.. they’re in pretty good agreement and it’s not terribly offshore.. once one model suite picks up on a change, they’ll all follow suit… I’d give it till Friday.

We haven’t seen the final solution yet. Need to be inside 48. Do you think the 9SLP will move more poleward than OTS. . I would think a wrapped up costal should move more poleward. Any credence to that?

A wrapped up tight closed low at 500 will naturally aid to build the ridge ahead of it and force higher heights.. you would notice that by comparing a real solid tightly packed 500 vs a more open sheared out wave.. also more of a southward and westward dig of the trof in the southeast along with an earlier phase will help immensely.. a lot of things need to come together

Until every SREF is a miss, it's worth keeping one eye open. There are already hits here at 87