I wanted to bring something up with the membership regarding short term modeling.

As you saw, I made my final forecast for this past event at 3 PM on Friday. I used a blend of the NBM and 12Z global models. I could have waited for newer data at 00Z Saturday night, or even Sunday morning's data, but it was a good thing I didn't.

As we know, that data took most of the heavy snow east of the area and was wrong. I generally make my final forecast 18-24 hours before events start.

I don't know exactly why, but it seems like OP models were better 24 hours out than six hours out.

And this is not the first time- it seems like this happens a lot. For that reason, many times I make my forecast about 18-24 hours before the event starts and then ride with it.

It is above my pay grade to speculate why global models are better at a slightly longer lead time- maybe the 3 or 4 hours that the data takes to get to us matters more in the near term, maybe it's too much data for their resolution- I really don't know.

All I know is what I have observed. Now hi-res models are a different story, but my point was about global models.

Also I wanted to make a quick point about the Canadian modeling.

The QPF was HORRIBLE- there is no denying that. But the Canadian modeling DID consistently show the banding over ENJ/NY Metro, so maybe we should give it credit for that.

Carry on!

1 hour ago, FrankPizz said:

I had 5 days below zero with -7 being the coldest. I dont remember having below zero temps 3 winters in a row ever since ive been tracking (1987)

We're talking about forecasts though. And the Euro got me down to -11 on one of those days.

Those were day 1 to day 4 forecast lows and it busted badly on all 4 nights.

Either the Euro is on Crack or its gonna win a coup like the gfs did last storm. Its not even close with the weekend small wave.

1 hour ago, Analog1888 said:

I wanted to bring something up with the membership regarding short term modeling.

As you saw, I made my final forecast for this past event at 3 PM on Friday. I used a blend of the NBM and 12Z global models. I could have waited for newer data at 00Z Saturday night, or even Sunday morning's data, but it was a good thing I didn't.

As we know, that data took most of the heavy snow east of the area and was wrong. I generally make my final forecast 18-24 hours before events start.

I don't know exactly why, but it seems like OP models were better 24 hours out than six hours out.

And this is not the first time- it seems like this happens a lot. For that reason, many times I make my forecast about 18-24 hours before the event starts and then ride with it.

It is above my pay grade to speculate why global models are better at a slightly longer lead time- maybe the 3 or 4 hours that the data takes to get to us matters more in the near term, maybe it's too much data for their resolution- I really don't know.

All I know is what I have observed. Now hi-res models are a different story, but my point was about global models.

Also I wanted to make a quick point about the Canadian modeling.

The QPF was HORRIBLE- there is no denying that. But the Canadian modeling DID consistently show the banding over ENJ/NY Metro, so maybe we should give it credit for that.

Carry on!

I’ve often notice this as well. Usually the 00z or 12z run at hr 24 are most accurate. It’s what I saw on the hrrr and rap extended runs showing a huge western NJ band set for hours then slowing pivoting due east. The inside day one models did not have that feature

1 hour ago, Graupel said:

Gfs - congrats Ray

It'll come N.

Seasonal trend.

38 minutes ago, Graupel said:

I’ve often notice this as well. Usually the 00z or 12z run at hr 24 are most accurate. It’s what I saw on the hrrr and rap extended runs showing a huge western NJ band set for hours then slowing pivoting due east. The inside day one models did not have that feature

Got to give a lot of credit to those short term models like the RAP, HRRR and even the HREF. They were all over that banding on every run throughout the storm and even leading up to go time in the last 12-18 hours.

2 hours ago, TheBomber656 said:

Doubt it will be the coldest day of the winter, would bet against that.

35 minutes ago, dbc said:

Got to give a lot of credit to those short term models like the RAP, HRRR and even the HREF. They were all over that banding on every run throughout the storm and even leading up to go time in the last 12-18 hours.

Exemplary performances by these three models.

1 AN temp day (Sat) in next 10, warmth nowhere in sight.

3 hours ago, Sundog said:

Not a single day below zero here despite the Euro giving me 4 in a row on a point blank forecast.

Not believing a 192 hour forecast that's for sure.

Yeah me either. The single digit to below zero is done for nyc/LI area

58 minutes ago, Redo said:

Doubt it will be the coldest day of the winter, would bet against that.

Here is where climatology comes in:

Last time Central Park fell below ten degrees in March: 1967.

27 minutes ago, Keith O said:

1 AN temp day (Sat) in next 10, warmth nowhere in sight.

Well it is in sight, the first full weekend of March. Even the weeklies are on board with it.

Some mood snow

The blizzard was done with a -1.00 PNA and a nearly +3.00 NAO. This was the third snowstorm where a negative PNA gave us the snow which leads me to this theory.

Perhaps when the pacific is this hostile, having a +PNA/-NAO combo which used to be the holy Grail the big storms just isn’t the case anymore. These indices have failed in a very big way this whole decade. I honestly believe going forward with that. We should learn to think differently with tele connections and look at what is happening atmospherically.

I have a theory that a positive NAO and one that is highly positive creates its own form of blocking but without the crushing confluence and suppression and shredding.

The -NAO this decade has done nothing more than become a heat Ridge during the autumn, and it just eats away at any potential storms during the winter. It has been absolutely terrible this decade and I no longer count on it to give us a chance of big snowstorms.

3 hours ago, Analog1888 said:

After how the euro just performed in this last event, I am weighing it much lower than other models.

It was a joke.

3 minutes ago, Andrew said:

The blizzard was done with a -1.00 PNA and a nearly +3.00 NAO. This was the third snowstorm where a negative PNA gave us the snow which leads me to this theory.

Perhaps when the pacific is this hostile, having a +PNA/-NAO combo which used to be the holy Grail the big storms just isn’t the case anymore. These indices have failed in a very big way this whole decade. I honestly believe going forward with that. We should learn to think differently with tele connections and look at what is happening atmospherically.

I have a theory that a positive NAO and one that is highly positive creates its own form of blocking but without the crushing confluence and suppression and shredding.

The -NAO this decade has done nothing more than become a heat Ridge during the autumn, and it just eats away at any potential storms during the winter. It has been absolutely terrible this decade and I no longer count on it to give us a chance of big snowstorms.

@Andrew This is very interesting and it is possible it influenced this last storm while we were fighting a hostile Pacific.

I do think there was clear decaying Atlantic blocking and a pseudo 50/50 and while the PNA was negative there was an undeniable +PNA style ridge axis out west and a massive blocking High pressure area at 500 in the gulf of Alaska preventing a low pressure behind the one crashing into extreme SW Canada's coast during our storm from making the flow too progressive.

What is frightening is there was plenty of room for some slightly better Atlantic blocking with this storm that would have allowed it to stall for even longer in the warm pool that was showing up on the SST maps just off the delmarva and deepen even more. Better orientation of the trough was also possible which would have allowed the storm to slowly gain more latitude than it did.

You might have easily seen the crazy 40 to 50 inch totals the NAM spit out in a couple of runs with even more NAO related blocking, a slightly better upstream trough orientation and a deeper low pressure. It would actually still be snowing heavily right now if we had some small improvements to the setup than the one we actually had.

Congrats ray

Nice signal

Euro !

Nam for clipper