Just now, Tornadojay said:

A wrapped up tight closed low at 500 will naturally aid to build the ridge ahead of it and force higher heights.. you would notice that by comparing a real solid tightly packed 500 vs a more open sheared out wave.. also more of a southward and westward dig of the trof in the southeast along with an earlier phase will help immensely.. a lot of things need to come together

but we don't need them all to snow. Yes a HECS, but any snow is good snow

Just now, USAwx said:

but we don't need them all to snow. Yes a HECS, but any snow is good snow

Yep true.. at the end of the day, that’s what it’s about.. I agree..

1 hour ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

NO CHANGES

Expecting this to expand westward some in the coming days.

3 minutes ago, Tornadojay said:

Yep true.. at the end of the day, that’s what it’s about.. I agree..

see my edit, we DON'T need them all to snow

4 Srefs would have been a hit. 0 at 3z. That is progress. EVERY MODEL every CYCLE needs to bump west today.

1 minute ago, USAwx said:

4 Srefs would have been a hit. 0 at 3z. That is progress. EVERY MODEL every CYCLE needs to bump west today.

Euro ensemble I believe sniffed the trend first last week. Hoping that’s the case here

Just now, nycsnow said:

Euro ensemble I believe sniffed the trend first last week. Hoping that’s the case here

well, if we are talking about sniffing, gotta give that to gefs, as much as that pains me

Just now, USAwx said:

well, if we are talking about sniffing, gotta give that to gefs, as much as that pains me

Any improvement on google deepmind?

BTW, there were plenty of hits on the 6Z ICON ensembles

some even come inland.

6z RRFSA would have brought the deform band into the area

look at H5 POSITION is north enough for that

@Tornadojay thoughts?

.

Got to get the 850 lows up here to snow

a few srefs do it

No real help here. The SLP is outside of the isopleths that could bring this North into the coast it will escape NE

Navy

We missed a blizzard by the ridge breaking down 12 hours too quick

fucking pac

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

Navy

probably just a graze

Icon running, maybe we can get something decent to start 12z

Shouldn't have even analyzed the NAM when it does this

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Icon running, maybe we can get something decent to start 12z

you need to get the vort to dive more north south, not sw to se

it's causing cyclogenesis to be out ahead of any flow that will come up here

i don't see anything in two days changing that yet

but we track regardless

Keep this in mind with each model run today