58 minutes ago, USAwx said:

6z RRFSA would have brought the deform band into the area

look at H5 POSITION is north enough for that

@Tornadojay thoughts?

.

Hard to say for sure.. 250 map at that time frame had a fairly open wave so I’m worried that might slip a bit.. I need to see it go out a few more chunks of hours.. I see the 12Z is coming out as we speak

all the models do that multiple lows, it's a product of the tug by H5

17 minutes ago, USAwx said:

No real help here. The SLP is outside of the isopleths that could bring this North into the coast it will escape NE

You see all that vorticity junk east of the main trof.. that’s why the NAM is trying to produce multiple and elongated lows.. it’s chasing the SLP drops where the divergence is maximized which is just east of where the vorticity advection is

Not sure if it fully applies here, however the energy entering west coast is coming in northern CA maybe southern OR. Given that latitude I am holding out another 24 hours before jumping off this storm....I say it comes north let's go NORM rule!

1 minute ago, PaulTarsus said:

Keep this in mind with each model run today

3 minutes ago, Tornadojay said:

You see all that vorticity junk east of the main trof.. that’s why the NAM is trying to produce multiple and elongated lows.. it’s chasing the SLP drops where the divergence is maximized which is just east of where the vorticity advection is

it's on every model

i doubt a few missing obs matters

6 minutes ago, PaulTarsus said:

Keep this in mind with each model run today

Even ballon’s don’t wanna fly for the NAM

3 minutes ago, Tornadojay said:

You see all that vorticity junk east of the main trof.. that’s why the NAM is trying to produce multiple and elongated lows.. it’s chasing the SLP drops where the divergence is maximized which is just east of where the vorticity advection is

There shoukd be one consolidated low E of the Delmarva

If its 75 miles we snow. If its 150 we dont.

Wana see if the Globals try and answer that

Icon stuck at 42?

Just now, Sundog said:

Icon stuck at 42?

Just moved now

4 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Icon stuck at 42?

at 60 it looks just as bad as it did for the last three days

we had one sorta ok euro run at 6z, otherwise, we haven't seen anything real in days

Not sure it means much but western end of trough squeezing the ridge more compared to 6z

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

Not sure it means much but western end of trough squeezing the ridge more compared to 6z

the trough sucks on the EC for a storm man

It’s amazing how fast and easy models lock into a miss lol

2 minutes ago, USAwx said:

the trough sucks on the EC for a storm man

I am looking for anything lol

Icon isn't just a miss, it's a super miss

2 hours ago, USAwx said:

I'll give out 100 dollars to the top 5 posters today and tomorrow if this verifies

Its coming !

3 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

It’s amazing how fast and easy models lock into a miss lol

Not really, it's just that there's more area a miss can cover.

Lol icon

Not even flurries for Jersey or Long Island

Even for New England icon is a complete miss wow it’s way out there