42 minutes ago, Graupel said:

Close

Eps looks fine to me

Euro ai came north and also now has it as a Monday event

euro looked like it was gonna be north initially but the storm gets shredded I’m guessing by the high

Today will be our 41st consecutive day with snow cover. This is now the 9th longest stretch and 12th overall streak since 1894. We could see some flurries late today across more southern areas. High temperatures today are a few degrees below normal around 40 degrees but a nice warm up on the way both Friday and especially Saturday with highs in the mid 50's. A strong cold front slides through on Saturday night and we will turn sharply colder by Sunday with highs back down into the 30's. Snow chances look to increase early next week but timing and amounts way too early to nail down.

Don't think 500mb supports a significant event (or even precip at all) here on Mon night/Tue. Think we get a a quick shot on Sunday with arctic front and then a better shot of significant storm on Tue night/Wed that than opens the door to short-term warmth end of next week and especially next weekend.

These waves always love to come north

@Ag3 youre going to love the weather from March 5th on....

HISTORIC WINTER...

BN NOV DEC JAN FEB

6 weeks of snow cover to some degeess. ( minus a day or 2 )

Coldest 30 day period in 25 yrs

2 KUs

42 KNYC

61 Colts Neck

But enough now

1 minute ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

@Ag3 youre going to love the weather from March 5th on....

As long as it is dry, that is fine.

As modeled, that cannot come north Monday.

The GFS shows the high over Rochester, the GGEM is over VT (better, maybe enough for a light event), and the ECMWF is over NNJ.

How is a low going to move directly into a high? Now, if the high moves into Canada, or at least far NNE, then we have a shot.

But as modeled, that's not coming north.

You can't just say "these like to come north"- you have to look at the pattern. Now, obviously many storms DO come north.

So when I see a storm modeled to go south, I examine the synoptics.

The first thing I do is check for a high pressure system or a PV lobe to block the storm.

If there is none, I'll be the first to say that it's coming north.

But for this one, the only way it could work, and it's possible, is if we get pure overrunning snow. But no true low pressure system is going right into a high. Unless, of course, the high is not modeled correctly.

4 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

HISTORIC WINTER...

BN NOV DEC JAN FEB

6 weeks of snow cover to some degeess. ( minus a day or 2 )

Coldest 30 day period in 25 yrs

2 KUs

42 KNYC

61 Colts Neck

But enough now

To make this an A+ winter we need at least 5" in March.

15 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

To make this an A+ winter we need at least 5" in March.

All those things I posted for here make it an A+ winter

Wire to wire cold and 200% of N is an A+ for Colts Neck NJ.

7 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

All those things I posted for here make it an A+ winter

Wire to wire cold and 200% of N is an A+ for Colts Neck NJ.

Sorry, but for me, A+ is extremely hard. You need a moderate or higher event in every month (Nov can sub for Dec or Apr can sub for Mar).
This winter in NJ I would give it a SOLID A, no question.

But to get this to A+, we need an event in March or April.

41 minutes ago, THE GREAT Ben Solo said:

HISTORIC WINTER...

BN NOV DEC JAN FEB

6 weeks of snow cover to some degeess. ( minus a day or 2 )

Coldest 30 day period in 25 yrs

2 KUs

42 KNYC

61 Colts Neck

But enough now

New York City has over 50 inches but alas snow is never properly accounted for in Central Park sadly. It’s an A+ winter. I had 52 inches in Brooklyn. Not easy to do.

10 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

Sorry, but for me, A+ is extremely hard. You need a moderate or higher event in every month (Nov can sub for Dec or Apr can sub for Mar).
This winter in NJ I would give it a SOLID A, no question.

But to get this to A+, we need an event in March or April.

if it ends up a top five would that be an a+?

Icon coming in way north for next week.

Not enough but you can see the difference. 6z vs 12z

Icon 900 miles north

6 minutes ago, uncle w said:

if it ends up a top five would that be an a+?

Maybe, 2010-11 wasn't for me, because it was so short.