Let’s see what gfs says if it’s much closer graze or hit then Icon can be dismissed.

Let’s see what gfs says if it’s much closer graze or hit then Icon can be dismissed.

Starting to look real good for the Carolina weenies. They might clean up

How did the end of RGEM look based off 500? @USAwx

Just now, nycsnow said:

How did the end of RGEM look based off 500? @USAwx

In a closing. Woman is hot too

We’ve seen all the models be dumber than a door knob before.. it’s still close enough to watch very closely.

That is a hard no on rgem

AIGFS still a no

Probably won’t no for sure until the pac junk that’s breaking down the ridge is fully sampled.

2 minutes ago, Graupel said:

Probably won’t no for sure until the pac junk that’s breaking down the ridge is fully sampled.

That's why I said Friday morning.

Awful 12z so far let’s see what GEFS say soon

"We are seeing some convective feedback in the modeling with how they are handling the evolution of H5. The "jump" eastward of the vorticity maximum from one frame to next doesn't make sense, it appears to align with intense modeled convection in the lower-level frontogenetic region. The vorticity associated with the forcing for that convection is real, but to think that a relatively small piece of energy is going to suddenly overwhelm a strong, mature, closed mid-level and force it to open up and lurch eastward by 200-300 miles in six hours doesn't make sense to me." from a pro met friend Ray B.

Speaks to what is being discussed here - makes sense but we will see

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Awful 12z so far let’s see what GEFS say soon

The GFS is actually a touch better. The low stays west a little longer and brings decent snow to the east end, where last run had nothing there.

3 minutes ago, amugs said:

"We are seeing some convective feedback in the modeling with how they are handling the evolution of H5. The "jump" eastward of the vorticity maximum from one frame to next doesn't make sense, it appears to align with intense modeled convection in the lower-level frontogenetic region. The vorticity associated with the forcing for that convection is real, but to think that a relatively small piece of energy is going to suddenly overwhelm a strong, mature, closed mid-level and force it to open up and lurch eastward by 200-300 miles in six hours doesn't make sense to me." from a pro met friend Ray B.

Speaks to what is being discussed here - makes sense but we will see

Chasing convection. We may not have a handle on this for another 24-48 hrs

GFS shows this perfectly - chasing its tail OTS

GGEM looks a touch better too. It still has two lows, but it has consolidated better around the western low and precip is a bit more expanisve on the NW side.

Ray B - "Still looks like these models are chasing convection associated with the warm advection way out along the warm front, which is feeding back up to H5 and allowing "phantom" vorticity to dampen the height fields, thereby leading to these east-northeast tracks. I don't know, man, blocking up near Hudson Bay is usually pretty classic for a good Northeast snow storm; it looks like it has room to breathe and come up at least some into the Mid-Atlantic. Plus, that block isn't THAT strong. It just doesn't look right to me."

WOW GGEM is about 150 miles west!

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