1 minute ago, Analog1888 said:

WOW GGEM is about 150 miles west!

Round and round we go. Yet Another model solution

7 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

GGEM looks a touch better too. It still has two lows, but it has consolidated better around the western low and precip is a bit more expanisve on the NW side.

WTF?? No way

Something to consider: we had a similar setup in December in which all NWP dropped the H5 closed low into Georgia (a very aggressive move). Instead, it only got as far south as VA/NC. I think that’s the only way to save this event in the coming days (as it would shift confluence north as well).

Just now, Castellanus said:

Something to consider: we had a similar setup in December in which all NWP dropped the H5 closed low into Georgia (a very aggressive move). Instead, it only got as far south as VA/NC. I think that’s the only way to save this event in the coming days (as it would shift confluence north as well).

I agree with a lot of mets about the CF issue. It might not be possible to see what really happens with the surface low until models are able to determine which low is the surface low.

We all know there won't be two lows like many models are showing.

1 minute ago, amugs said:

Ray B - "Still looks like these models are chasing convection associated with the warm advection way out along the warm front, which is feeding back up to H5 and allowing "phantom" vorticity to dampen the height fields, thereby leading to these east-northeast tracks. I don't know, man, blocking up near Hudson Bay is usually pretty classic for a good Northeast snow storm; it looks like it has room to breathe and come up at least some into the Mid-Atlantic. Plus, that block isn't THAT strong. It just doesn't look right to me."

It's also the 50/50 not being in the correct position northwest enough and pressing the trough south and east plus the kickers behind our storm.

Seems like every cycle on model has a scrape just 35-50mi away Obliterated this forum.

1 minute ago, Graupel said:

Seems like every cycle on model has a scrape just 35-50mi away Obliterated this forum.

Significant snow into far Eastern NYC- I would say that's definitely close enough to watch!

Just waiting for the fuse to be lit 🔥 with this one. Something tells me this may come further N/W yet and won’t see the correct outcome on Models for another day or two even.

What’s with this two low feature? Makes you question every model

3 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

Significant snow into far Eastern NYC- I would say that's definitely close enough to watch!

6 inches here but the cutoff is incredibly sharp

We need more than this

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

What’s with this two low feature? Makes you question every model

That's the convective feedback we've been talking about.

Ukie goes due east from Carolina basically

What the GGEM did actually gives me confidence that we could see a 100-200 mile jump west if/when the models converge and consolidate the energy into the western low.

The GGEM only did it halfway this run and moved considerably west.

GEFS went s/e a bit

Can somebody get the maps from December 14, 1988? That storm has some similarities to this one. I believe Islip got close to 10 inches of snow while LaGuardia had about a 3/4 of an inch and there was 2 to 4-3-6 in Nassau County

The GFS has light snow every even numbered day!

19 minutes ago, Andrew said:

Can somebody get the maps from December 14, 1988? That storm has some similarities to this one. I believe Islip got close to 10 inches of snow while LaGuardia had about a 3/4 of an inch and there was 2 to 4-3-6 in Nassau County

I remember watching it on radar as a middle school kid seeing snow down towards AC - we never saw a flake up north.

Only thing giving hope is the ggem shows how easy it is to make a substantial shift

Curious to see the euro at 12z. 6z went west.

The weeklies lock in the Greenland block through at least early March.

Earlier on in the forecast timeframe is likely due to the tropics while later on may be at least in part due to any potential SSWE.