NYC area nickel and dimes its way to like 8 inches from several clippers on the GFS lol

9 minutes ago, supermeh said:

Curious to see the euro at 12z. 6z went west.

I have no confidence it holds but it would be nice to see.

Models love joining shit solutions, even if the model is high accuracy, it will go to the crappiest model's solution if that solution means we get shafted lol

That's what it feels like

44 minutes ago, Andrew said:

Can somebody get the maps from December 14, 1988? That storm has some similarities to this one. I believe Islip got close to 10 inches of snow while LaGuardia had about a 3/4 of an inch and there was 2 to 4-3-6 in Nassau County

Just now, uncle w said:

I can't believe anyone got snow out of that with the low so far offshore

Euro AI is still crap

Euro ai not budging…if euro don’t trend better gonna be tough to rely solely on the GGEM to lead the way lol

1 hour ago, Analog1888 said:

NEW:

OLD:

Anybody think that double low thing is real?

4 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I can't believe anyone got snow out of that with the low so far offshore

Actually my mistake it was December 13, 1988. Well I lived in Rego Park we didn’t even have an inch but by Queensboro community college that was about in an inch and 3/4 and then it just kept getting more the more easy you went

3 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

Anybody think that double low thing is real?

No, they just don't work like that.

6 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I can't believe anyone got snow out of that with the low so far offshore

And it wasn't even particularly strong. Makes me wonder if there was some type of NORLUN or something.

I'm going to sit this weekend out and I am perfectly fine with this. 15" from Sun + 0.2" from yesterday (39.1" for season) has gone nowhere. Hope the coast cashes in on something. Talked to my friend in Belmar who said the cleanup from Sun (snow/sleet/rain .. deep freeze) is worst he has ever experienced. 2 days of backbreaking work to clear driveway for him. I was grateful for just snow/sleet. Looks like bunch of nickel and dime events in next 10 days that can get me over 50"

Just now, Analog1888 said:

And it wasn't even particularly strong. Makes me wonder if there was some type of NORLUN or something.

Of the double lows, one of them is considerably closer than the other. Which one is real??

Euro broken?

Boston discussion has a pretty good write up

Unfortunately there still is no clarity on where the storm
tracks. This is visualized by a large spread in ECMWF/GEM/GFS
ensemble member low tracks, which produces this elongated west-
east bend in the model-ensemble mean sea level pressure field
product. Although some solutions earlier today started to adjust
slightly offshore, some of the overnight guidance inched back
closer to the coast. As mentioned yesterday and continues to be
the case today, ensemble cluster analysis again keys on the
strength details associated with a complex upper low/PV anomaly
which is now meandering around Hudson Bay. Due to an amplifying
western North American ridge, this feature eventually digs
southward out of Canada around Fri and settles either into the
central Appalachians or into southern Georgia Sat, which helps
get cyclogenesis going somewhere near or offshore the Carolinas
early this weekend. Exactly when this occurs and how soon does
this mid/upper feature close off will be critical in the
eventual track and potential impacts to the eastern seaboard,
including us in Southern New England. The sooner this process
occurs, similar to the 00z/28th GFS which is the soonest to
close off the upper low once it crosses the US/Canada border,
the worse the outcome gets - as it would draw the surface
cyclone closest to the east coast. We probably won`t have a good
handle on how that shakes out until Thurs at earliest, and
there will likely be back- and-forth waffling of storm tracks
played out in the model world until that becomes more clear.

7 minutes ago, Andrew said:

Actually my mistake it was December 13, 1988. Well I lived in Rego Park we didn’t even have an inch but by Queensboro community college that was about in an inch and 3/4 and then it just kept getting more the more easy you went

4 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

One of them is considerably closer than the other. Which one is real??

I think the western low is the real one. It's on the coastal front.

That vort coming down from Canada has to be the super vort on steroids…. It needs to be really tight, drive as far west as possible and close quickly

3 minutes ago, Analog1888 said:

I think the western low is the real one. It's on the coastal front.

isn't that what Ben Solo said from the get go-that the storm would be on the arctic front not the polar front further east

1 minute ago, Tornadojay said:

That vort coming down from Canada has to be the super vort on steroids…. It needs to be really tight, drive as far west as possible and close quickly

And preferably further north: ie: over KY as opposed to GA.

Ignore the NAM it has two lows

well then ignore everything, they all have it, it relates to all the junk ahead of the trough the models are signaling